海上新丝路沿线国家进口需求研究
发布时间：2018-11-18 17:07
【摘要】：当今,“一带一路”作为一个重要的国际性合作倡议和战略性的新理念新共识已经被世界诸多国家提出和认同,而中国作为丝绸之路的发源地之一,近年来与“海上新丝路”沿线国家的经贸关系正在逐步加强、不断增进。因此,在全球需求已经发生重大变化和“一带一路”航线国家进口需求迅速增长的背景下,加强对海上新丝路沿线国家货物进口需求变化及其影响因素的研究,探讨中国与海上丝绸之路国家经贸合作的现状、机遇以及现实合作空间显得很有必要,也具有很强的现实意义。本文在分析海上新丝路沿线国家经济发展水平和货物进口需求现状的基础上,运用规范分析和实证分析相结合、定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法对海上新丝路沿线国家货物进口需求的变动情况及其影响因素进行了深入研究。文章首先阐述了海上新丝路沿线国家货物进口需求的变动情况,然后将23国分成3大航线来进行研究,通过在要素含量层面将进口产品需求按照HS(1992)分类标准划分成资源密集型产品、劳动密集型产品、资本密集型产品、技术密集型产品这四大类,借助统计数据和图表具体分析各大类产品在总的进口需求中的比重变化趋势,同时运用Moore结构变动指数来衡量进口产品需求结构的变动程度。接着运用面板模型分析方法探究影响货物进口需求变动的影响因素,得出经济水平、出口贸易的发展、通货膨胀和外商直接投资等因素对进口需求具有促进作用,而汇率、人口规模和金融危机对进口需求具有一定的阻碍作用。文章最后结合中国与海上新丝路沿线国家的贸易概况,对如何稳定促进中国与海上新丝路沿线国家的经贸合作提出针对性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Today, Belt and Road, as an important international cooperation initiative and strategic new concept and new consensus, has been put forward and recognized by many countries around the world, and China is one of the birthplaces of the Silk Road. In recent years, economic and trade relations with countries along the New Silk Road have been gradually strengthened. Therefore, against the background of the significant changes in global demand and the rapid growth in import demand from the countries on the "Belt and Road" route, the study of changes in the demand for imports of goods from countries along the New Silk Road at sea and their influencing factors has been strengthened. It is necessary and meaningful to discuss the present situation, opportunity and space of economic and trade cooperation between China and the maritime Silk Road countries. Based on the analysis of the level of economic development and the current situation of import demand of goods in the countries along the New Silk Road, this paper combines normative analysis with empirical analysis. The qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are combined to study the change of import demand of goods and its influencing factors in the countries along the New Silk Road. This paper first expounds the changes of the import demand of goods from countries along the New Silk Road, and then divides the 23 countries into three major routes for study. By classifying the demand for imported products according to the HS (1992) classification criteria at the factor content level into four categories: resource-intensive products, labor-intensive products, capital-intensive products, technology-intensive products, they are classified into four categories: resource intensive products, labor-intensive products, capital-intensive products and technology-intensive products. With the help of statistical data and charts, this paper analyzes the changing trend of the proportion of each kind of product in the total import demand, and uses the Moore structure change index to measure the change degree of the import product demand structure. Then using the panel model analysis method to explore the influence factors of goods import demand change, the economic level, the development of export trade, inflation and foreign direct investment and other factors to promote the import demand, but exchange rate, The size of population and the financial crisis have a certain impact on import demand. Finally, based on the general situation of trade between China and the countries along the New Silk Road, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to stably promote the economic and trade cooperation between China and the countries along the New Silk Road.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F746.11
本文编号：2340613
[Abstract]:Today, Belt and Road, as an important international cooperation initiative and strategic new concept and new consensus, has been put forward and recognized by many countries around the world, and China is one of the birthplaces of the Silk Road. In recent years, economic and trade relations with countries along the New Silk Road have been gradually strengthened. Therefore, against the background of the significant changes in global demand and the rapid growth in import demand from the countries on the "Belt and Road" route, the study of changes in the demand for imports of goods from countries along the New Silk Road at sea and their influencing factors has been strengthened. It is necessary and meaningful to discuss the present situation, opportunity and space of economic and trade cooperation between China and the maritime Silk Road countries. Based on the analysis of the level of economic development and the current situation of import demand of goods in the countries along the New Silk Road, this paper combines normative analysis with empirical analysis. The qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are combined to study the change of import demand of goods and its influencing factors in the countries along the New Silk Road. This paper first expounds the changes of the import demand of goods from countries along the New Silk Road, and then divides the 23 countries into three major routes for study. By classifying the demand for imported products according to the HS (1992) classification criteria at the factor content level into four categories: resource-intensive products, labor-intensive products, capital-intensive products, technology-intensive products, they are classified into four categories: resource intensive products, labor-intensive products, capital-intensive products and technology-intensive products. With the help of statistical data and charts, this paper analyzes the changing trend of the proportion of each kind of product in the total import demand, and uses the Moore structure change index to measure the change degree of the import product demand structure. Then using the panel model analysis method to explore the influence factors of goods import demand change, the economic level, the development of export trade, inflation and foreign direct investment and other factors to promote the import demand, but exchange rate, The size of population and the financial crisis have a certain impact on import demand. Finally, based on the general situation of trade between China and the countries along the New Silk Road, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to stably promote the economic and trade cooperation between China and the countries along the New Silk Road.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F746.11
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