出口退税对我国出口产品结构调整的影响研究

发布时间：2018-11-24 09:02

【摘要】：随着改革的持续推进,我国经济发展迅速。其中,作为推动我国经济高速发展的重要力量,出口贸易呈“井喷式”增长态势。我国出口贸易总额由1978年的171亿元迅速增长至2014年的14万亿元,其在世界位次是第一,是“世界出口贸易大国”。然而,我国出口增长方式仍是粗放为主,“两高一资”产品出口占比很大。这直接导致我国能源紧缺,污染严重,环境逆差明显。调整此种粗放的出口增长方式在积极探索可持续低碳经济发展模式的我国显得尤为迫切。目前,出口退税已成为转变贸易发展方式,促进节能减排的重要贸易手段。那么,出口退税影响出口产品结构的作用机理是什么?它对我国出口产品结构的调整又有怎样的影响?本文拟对此进行探讨,以期为从出口退税角度调整我国出口产品结构提供参考意见和思路。本文首先就国内外关于出口退税与出口产品结构之间关系的研究进行了文献回顾。其次,本文对出口退税影响出口产品结构进行了理论分析,并从税收效应、作用机制角度研究其影响机制。然后,从出口总量和出口产品结构两个层面梳理了我国出口产品结构现状;从出口退税的发展历程,出口退税对出口贸易的影响方面梳理了我国出口退税现状。再者,从整体行业和典型行业两个层面就出口退税对我国出口产品结构调整影响分别进行了协整分析、VAR模型回归分析、脉冲响应分析、方差分解。研究显示:出口退税推动了我国出口总额快速增长,两者变动趋势相近,出口退税对出口结构的影响体现了我国产业结构调整导向。从整体行业来看,出口退税与出口产品结构的调整有长期稳定的均衡关系;出口退税率对工业制成品出口的正向推动作用较初级产品大;出口退税对出口产品结构调整的短期激励效果更显著;出口退税对工业制成品的出口增长贡献较初级产品大。从典型行业来看,出口退税对不同行业的影响效果不同,对资本技术密集型行业正向推动最大,劳动密集型行业次之,资源密集型行业最小。出口退税对不同行业的作用时滞有差异,其对资本技术密集型行业长期作用大。另外,人民币实际有效汇率、国内GDP、国外需求对出口产品结构的调整有不同程度影响。最后,本文就如何运用出口退税促进我国出口产品结构调整提出相关建议,包括保持出口退税政策稳定性,制定差别化出口退税率等。
[Abstract]:With the continuous promotion of reform, China's economy is developing rapidly. Among them, as an important force to promote the rapid development of China's economy, export trade has a "blowout" growth trend. China's total export trade increased rapidly from 17.1 billion yuan in 1978 to 14 trillion yuan in 2014. It ranks first in the world and is a "big export trade country in the world". However, China's export growth mode is still extensive, "two high one capital" products export accounts for a large proportion. This directly leads to energy shortage, serious pollution and obvious environmental deficit in China. The adjustment of this extensive export growth mode is particularly urgent in China, which is actively exploring the sustainable low-carbon economic development model. At present, export tax rebate has become an important trade means to change the way of trade development and promote energy saving and emission reduction. So, what is the mechanism that export tax rebates affect the structure of export products? How does it affect the readjustment of China's export product structure? This paper intends to discuss this in order to provide reference and ideas for adjusting the structure of China's export products from the point of view of export tax rebate. Firstly, this paper reviews the relationship between export tax rebate and export product structure at home and abroad. Secondly, this paper makes a theoretical analysis on the effect of export tax rebate on the structure of export products, and studies its influence mechanism from the perspective of tax effect and mechanism. Then, it combs the current situation of China's export product structure from the two aspects of total export volume and export product structure, and combs the current situation of China's export tax rebate from the development course of export tax rebate and the impact of export tax rebate on export trade. Furthermore, from the two aspects of the whole industry and the typical industry, the influence of export tax rebate on China's export product structure adjustment is analyzed respectively, VAR model regression analysis, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition. The research shows that the export tax rebate promotes the rapid growth of China's total export volume, and the trend of the two changes is similar. The effect of export rebate on the export structure reflects the orientation of China's industrial structure adjustment. From the view of the whole industry, the export tax rebate has a long and stable equilibrium relationship with the adjustment of export product structure, and the positive promotion effect of export tax rebate rate on the export of manufactured goods is greater than that of primary product. The short-term incentive effect of export tax rebate on the adjustment of export product structure is more obvious, and the export tax rebate contributes more to the export growth of manufactured goods than primary products. From the typical industry, the effect of export tax rebate on different industries is different, the capital technology-intensive industry is the largest, the labor-intensive industry is the second, and the resource-intensive industry is the least. The effect of export tax rebate on different industries is different, and it has a long-term effect on capital-technology intensive industries. In addition, the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the domestic and foreign demand of GDP, have different effects on the adjustment of export product structure. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to use export tax rebate to promote the adjustment of China's export product structure, including maintaining the stability of export tax rebate policy and formulating differential export tax rebate rate and so on.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.50;F752.62

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