出口对民营企业生存的影响分析
发布时间：2018-12-14 02:22
【摘要】：民营企业不仅数量众多,而且对促进国民经济增长、吸纳就业、推动创新和维护社会稳定发挥着巨大作用,更是我国参与国际市场竞争的生力军,在“一带一路”战略的实施过程中也将扮演重要角色。随着国家体制改革进程的深化,民营企业对于经济发展的重要意义将愈发凸显。但是与其他所有制类型的企业相比,民营企业地位较低,生产经营环境差,生存时间普遍不长,平均寿命只有2.9年。民营企业群体的成长壮大是我国经济的稳定持续发展的必要条件,其高死亡率必须引起重视。在此前提下,本文着眼民营企业生存问题,研究了出口及其他一系列因素对其生存时间的影响效果。本文首先回顾了民营企业的发展历程并分析了其生存现状,从而更加深入的了解民营企业这一群体。然后分析了出口对民营企业的影响机理并介绍了生存分析方法,在此基础上,运用Kaplan-Meier乘积-极限估计方法和风险率曲线对出口及其他变量对民营企业生存时间的影响效果进行了估计。之后在实证部分,本文基于中国工业企业数据库1999-2007年的民营企业数据,运用COX比例风险模型验证了出口及其他变量对民营企业生存时间的作用效果,并用Weibull估计方法对回归结果进行了稳健性检验,最后提出了推动民营企业更好发展的一些政策建议。在理论分析与实证检验的基础上,本文得出的结论主要有：出口能够显著提高民营企业的生存时间,但是对不同技术行业和地区的民营企业的影响效果是不同的。出口对高技术行业和东部地区民营出口企业寿命的延长作用更显著；企业规模(Scale)对民营企业失败风险有显著负向影响；企业年龄(Age, Age2)与民营企业失败概率的倒“U”型关系,也就是说并不是说企业年龄越大,失败的风险越低,而是存在一个拐点,当企业年龄增长到一定程度,不仅不会促进企业生存,反而会提高企业失败概率；资本密集度(KL)越高,民营企业的生存可能性越大。同样,销售利润率(Prof)越高的民营企业,失败概率越低,说明经营效率越高,企业越容易存活。资产负债率(Debt)对民营企业失败事件的影响是正向的,即高资产负债率会加大企业失败的风险,不利于企业经营发展。平均工资(Wage)越高,即人力资本投入越大,民营企业生存概率越高。
[Abstract]:Private enterprises not only have a large number, but also play a great role in promoting national economic growth, absorbing employment, promoting innovation and maintaining social stability. Belt and Road will also play an important role in the implementation of the strategy. With the deepening of national system reform, the importance of private enterprises to economic development will become more and more prominent. But compared with other types of enterprises, the status of private enterprises is lower, the production and management environment is poor, the survival time is generally not long, the average life span is only 2.9 years. The growth and expansion of private enterprises is a necessary condition for the steady and sustainable development of Chinese economy, and its high mortality rate must be paid attention to. On this premise, this paper focuses on the survival of private enterprises, and studies the effects of export and other factors on their survival time. This paper first reviews the development of private enterprises and analyzes the current situation of their survival, so as to better understand this group of private enterprises. Then it analyzes the influence mechanism of export on private enterprises and introduces the method of survival analysis, on the basis of which, The effects of export and other variables on the survival time of private enterprises are estimated by using Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimation method and risk rate curve. Then in the empirical part, based on the data of Chinese industrial enterprise database from 1999 to 2007, this paper uses the COX proportional risk model to verify the effect of export and other variables on the survival time of private enterprises. The regression results are tested by Weibull estimation method, and some policy suggestions are put forward to promote the better development of private enterprises. On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical test, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: export can significantly improve the survival time of private enterprises, but the effects on private enterprises in different technology industries and regions are different. The effect of export on the extension of the life of high-tech industry and private export enterprises in the eastern region is more significant, and the (Scale) of enterprise scale has a significant negative impact on the risk of failure of private enterprises. The inverted "U" relationship between Age, Age2 and the probability of failure of private enterprises is not to say that the older the enterprise is, the lower the risk of failure is, but that there is an inflection point when the enterprise age increases to a certain extent. Not only will not promote the survival of enterprises, but will improve the probability of enterprise failure; The higher the capital intensity (KL), the greater the survival possibility of private enterprises. Similarly, the higher the (Prof), the lower the probability of failure, which means that the more efficient the business is, the easier it is to survive. The impact of asset-liability ratio (Debt) on the failure of private enterprises is positive, that is, high asset-liability ratio will increase the risk of enterprise failure and is not conducive to the development of enterprise management. The higher the average salary (Wage), the higher the survival probability of private enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62;F276.5
本文编号：2377735
[Abstract]:Private enterprises not only have a large number, but also play a great role in promoting national economic growth, absorbing employment, promoting innovation and maintaining social stability. Belt and Road will also play an important role in the implementation of the strategy. With the deepening of national system reform, the importance of private enterprises to economic development will become more and more prominent. But compared with other types of enterprises, the status of private enterprises is lower, the production and management environment is poor, the survival time is generally not long, the average life span is only 2.9 years. The growth and expansion of private enterprises is a necessary condition for the steady and sustainable development of Chinese economy, and its high mortality rate must be paid attention to. On this premise, this paper focuses on the survival of private enterprises, and studies the effects of export and other factors on their survival time. This paper first reviews the development of private enterprises and analyzes the current situation of their survival, so as to better understand this group of private enterprises. Then it analyzes the influence mechanism of export on private enterprises and introduces the method of survival analysis, on the basis of which, The effects of export and other variables on the survival time of private enterprises are estimated by using Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimation method and risk rate curve. Then in the empirical part, based on the data of Chinese industrial enterprise database from 1999 to 2007, this paper uses the COX proportional risk model to verify the effect of export and other variables on the survival time of private enterprises. The regression results are tested by Weibull estimation method, and some policy suggestions are put forward to promote the better development of private enterprises. On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical test, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: export can significantly improve the survival time of private enterprises, but the effects on private enterprises in different technology industries and regions are different. The effect of export on the extension of the life of high-tech industry and private export enterprises in the eastern region is more significant, and the (Scale) of enterprise scale has a significant negative impact on the risk of failure of private enterprises. The inverted "U" relationship between Age, Age2 and the probability of failure of private enterprises is not to say that the older the enterprise is, the lower the risk of failure is, but that there is an inflection point when the enterprise age increases to a certain extent. Not only will not promote the survival of enterprises, but will improve the probability of enterprise failure; The higher the capital intensity (KL), the greater the survival possibility of private enterprises. Similarly, the higher the (Prof), the lower the probability of failure, which means that the more efficient the business is, the easier it is to survive. The impact of asset-liability ratio (Debt) on the failure of private enterprises is positive, that is, high asset-liability ratio will increase the risk of enterprise failure and is not conducive to the development of enterprise management. The higher the average salary (Wage), the higher the survival probability of private enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62;F276.5
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前3条
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3 刘海洋;李兴龙;;民营企业扎根机理、生存概率与政府规制强度[J];改革;2013年04期
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