中国出口贸易碳排放预警体系研究

发布时间：2019-01-03 16:51

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的发展,中国经济国际化的程度不断得到提升,对外贸易尤其是出口贸易发展十分迅速。由于中国出口贸易规模持续的扩大,使得能源消耗量也在不断提高,因出口贸易而引发的碳排放量也是居高不下。而在中国的出口贸易中,加工贸易仍然占据着较大的比重。作为世界最主要的出口贸易国之一,出口贸易在带动中国国民经济增长的同时也导致了大量碳排放,中国的出口贸易已成为影响本国碳排放的重要因素。研究中国出口贸易与碳排放之间的内在关系以及建立中国出口贸易碳排放预警体系,对于中国经济发展、贸易结构调整等方面都具有重要的理论与实践意义。本文通过分析国内外的研究现状,对中国的出口贸易碳排放的现状做了一个客观分析,根据相关研究梳理了中国出口贸易碳排放预警体系的相关理论。为了做好对我国出口贸易碳排放的预警,论文从行业层面运用投入产出分析和瓦尔拉斯—卡塞尔模型对中国出口贸易碳排放量进行了实际测度。针对中国出口贸易碳排放的实际情况,在运用熵权理论对指标进行赋权的基础上,构建了灰色神经网络预警模型。然后,论文在指标选取的原则和指标框架分析的基础上,选取并确定了相应的出口贸易碳排放预警指标体系。最后论文通过实证分析,对中国出口贸易碳排放进行了预警研究,结果证实了该预警体系具有很好的可靠性和准确性,预警效果显著,利用此预警系统能够有效地对中国出口贸易碳排放进行预警,进而达到对出口贸易碳排放防范和警告的作用。论文的研究对进一步加强对中国出口贸易碳排放的管理提供了一定的参考依据,对促进我国出口贸易健康稳定发展具有重要的意义。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization, the degree of China's economic internationalization has been continuously promoted, and foreign trade, especially export trade, has developed very rapidly. As China's export trade continues to expand, energy consumption is also rising, and carbon emissions from export trade remain high. In China's export trade, processing trade still occupies a large proportion. As one of the most important export and trading countries in the world, export trade not only leads to the growth of China's national economy, but also leads to a large number of carbon emissions. China's export trade has become an important factor affecting its carbon emissions. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the internal relationship between China's export trade and carbon emissions and to establish an early warning system for China's export trade carbon emissions, which is of great theoretical and practical significance for China's economic development and the adjustment of its trade structure. This paper analyzes the current situation of carbon emissions in China's export trade through the analysis of domestic and foreign research status, and combs the relevant theory of China's export trade carbon emissions warning system according to the relevant research. In order to forewarn the carbon emissions of China's export trade, the paper uses the input-output analysis and Valass-Cassell model to measure the carbon emissions of China's export trade. According to the actual situation of carbon emission in China's export trade, a grey neural network early warning model is constructed based on the entropy weight theory. Then, based on the analysis of the principle of index selection and the analysis of index framework, the paper selects and determines the corresponding early warning index system of carbon emissions in export trade. Finally, through the empirical analysis, the paper carries on the early warning research to the Chinese export trade carbon emission, the result confirmed that this early warning system has the very good reliability and the accuracy, the early warning effect is remarkable. Using this early warning system, China's export trade carbon emissions can be effectively early warning, and then to achieve the export trade carbon emissions prevention and warning role. The research in this paper provides a reference basis for further strengthening the management of carbon emissions from China's export trade, and is of great significance to promote the healthy and stable development of China's export trade.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62;X322

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