中国与东盟农产品贸易互补性研究

发布时间：2019-01-12 14:53

【摘要】：中国与东盟是世界上重要的农业大国,拥有相当的农业基础和相似的技术水平。中国与东盟自由贸易区的建立,会对双方农业和农产品生产产生较大影响。2002年中国与东盟双方签订了《中国与东盟全面经济合作框架协议》,确定建立中国—东盟自由贸易区的目标。2004年双方开始实施早期收获计划,以下调农产品关税为主,促进了双边农产品贸易的发展,到2006年,大部分农产品实现零关税,双边农产品贸易额突破100亿美元,2013年贸易额达到最高峰390.82亿美元。虽然农产品的贸易规模在不断扩大,但是中国对东盟的农产品贸易逆差也在逐年增加,因此有必要对中国与东盟的农产品贸易发展进行研究。本文首先对中国与东盟农产品双边贸易状况进行分析,发现中国与东盟的农产品贸易额在逐年增加。但是自2002年开始中国对东盟的进口增速小于出口增速,因而导致双方贸易逆差在逐年扩大,近两年虽然出口增速大于进口增速,但双方的贸易逆差仍旧超过140亿美元。其次本文对中国与东盟各国的农产品贸易额进行排名,发现贸易额排名前三位的分别是马来西亚、印度尼西亚和泰国,这三个国家占到整个中国对东盟农产品进出口额的77.32%。再次,本文利用贸易互补性指数分别对中国与东盟六国的农产品整体贸易和细分产品贸易进行互补性研究,结果显示马来西亚和越南对中国的贸易互补性很强而中国对这两个国家贸易互补性较弱;印度尼西亚与泰国对中国农产品贸易互补性都很强。为了更详细的分析中国与东盟之间农产品贸易互补性,本文分别对马来西亚、印度尼西亚农产品三位编码贸易额和泰国农产品三位、四位编码贸易额进行细分研究,结果表明,由于中国与东盟在地理位置、要素禀赋和市场需求等方面的差异,使得双方在农产品贸易方面具有较强的贸易互补性。最后,为了更好的促进中国与东盟农产品贸易的发展,本文提出我国应该对农产品进行深加工提高附加值,调整对东盟市场的农产品的出口结构,加快建立我国与东盟的多元化农业合作模式等建议。
[Abstract]:China and ASEAN are important agricultural countries in the world. The establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area will have a great impact on both agriculture and agricultural production. In 2002, China and ASEAN signed the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between China and ASEAN. In 2004, the two sides began to implement an early harvest plan to reduce tariffs on agricultural products, which promoted the development of bilateral agricultural trade. By 2006, most agricultural products had achieved zero tariffs. Bilateral agricultural trade exceeded US $10 billion and reached a peak of US $39.082 billion in 2013. Although the scale of agricultural trade is expanding, the agricultural trade deficit between China and ASEAN is increasing year by year, so it is necessary to study the development of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN. This paper first analyzes the bilateral trade of agricultural products between China and ASEAN, and finds that the volume of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN is increasing year by year. But since 2002, China's imports to ASEAN have been growing at a slower rate than exports, which has led to a trade deficit of more than $14 billion in the past two years, although exports have grown faster than imports in the past two years. Secondly, this paper ranks the trade volume of agricultural products between China and ASEAN countries. It is found that Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand are the top three in the trade volume. The three countries account for 77.32 percent of China's agricultural exports to ASEAN. Thirdly, using the trade complementarity index, this paper makes a complementary study on the overall trade of agricultural products and the subdivision trade of agricultural products between China and the six ASEAN countries. The results show that Malaysia and Vietnam are highly complementary to China, while China is less complementary to these two countries. Indonesia and Thailand are highly complementary to China's agricultural trade. In order to analyze the complementarities of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN in detail, this paper subdivides the agricultural product trade volume of Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand respectively. Due to the differences between China and ASEAN in geographical location, factor endowment and market demand, there is a strong trade complementarity between China and ASEAN in the trade of agricultural products. Finally, in order to better promote the development of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN, this paper proposes that China should further process agricultural products and increase the added value, and adjust the export structure of agricultural products to ASEAN market. We should speed up the establishment of a diversified agricultural cooperation model between China and ASEAN.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7;F753.3;F323.7

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