我国金融业FDI流入对我国金融服务贸易的影响分析
发布时间：2019-02-16 11:51
【摘要】：在经济全球化背景下,随着服务业在经济整体中的重要性增强和金融服务业在服务业中的地位上升,金融业FDI成为很多国家重要的部分。我国加入世贸组织以后,金融服务业利用外资的规模逐渐扩大,金融业FDI流入逐渐增多,对我国金融服务贸易产生不可避免的影响。本文采用文献法、比较分析法、定量分析法、理论分析法和实证分析法对我国金融业FDI流入对我国金融服务贸易的影响进行分析。在理论分析中,本文分析了六大国际投资的经典理论以及学术界中关于投资和贸易关系的两派主要观点:以Robert.A.Mundell为代表的FDI替代贸易理论以及以K.Kojima为代表的FDI贸易互补理论。本文进行了我国金融服务贸易和金融业FDI流入的现状分析,并分析了我国金融业FDI流入对金融服务贸易的可能影响。在实证分析中,通过对2006年第一季度至2016年第二季度我国金融业外商直接投资实际使用金额的季度数据以及2006年第一季度至2016年第二季度我国金融服务贸易及其组成部分:金融服务贸易(银行以及其他金融服务)和保险服务贸易的进出口数据进行协整检验,得出我国金融业FDI流入与我国金融服务贸易出口有较明显的长期均衡稳定的互补关系。我国金融业FDI流入对我国金融服务贸易进口的互补关系不明显,主要是由于对保险服务贸易进口的影响不大。本文还通过主成分分析引入其他自变量,综合考量我国金融业FDI流入对我国金融服务贸易出口的影响解释程度,得到我国金融业FDI流入是影响我国金融服务贸易出口的重要因素的结论。本文还使用岭回归建模得到包含我国金融业FDI流入在内的多个自变量解释我国金融服务贸易出口的方程。通过岭回归方程和协整方程的比较,本文认为岭回归方程更有效地说明了我国金融业FDI流入对我国金融服务贸易出口的影响。综合理论与实证分析,本研究认为我国金融业FDI流入与我国金融服务贸易出口有明显的互补关系,而我国金融业FDI流入也没有替代我国金融服务贸易的进口,从这个角度验证了投资与贸易的关系更符合以K.Kojima为代表的FDI贸易互补理论。因此我国需合理吸引金融业FDI流入,充分利用金融业FDI流入来发展我国金融服务贸易。本研究提出了相应的六大建议,从各方面对我国能更好地利用金融业FDI流入和金融服务贸易的发展提出建议和展望。本文有四大创新点:除对整体金融服务贸易进行分析外,还分别研究我国金融业FDI流入对金融服务贸易(银行和其他金融服务)和保险服务贸易的影响;全面解释分析我国金融业FDI流入影响我国金融服务贸易的机制;实证分析中分别考察变量之间静态和动态的状况;加入主成分分析和岭回归方程引入其他自变量使实证分析更全面。
[Abstract]:Under the background of economic globalization, with the increasing importance of the service industry in the whole economy and the increasing position of the financial service industry in the service industry, the financial industry FDI has become an important part in many countries. After China's entry into the WTO, the scale of utilizing foreign capital in financial service industry has gradually expanded, and the inflow of FDI in financial industry has gradually increased, which has an inevitable impact on China's financial service trade. This paper analyzes the influence of FDI inflow on China's financial services trade by means of literature, comparative analysis, quantitative analysis, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. In theoretical analysis, This paper analyzes six classical theories of international investment and two main viewpoints on investment and trade relations in academic circles: FDI alternative trade theory represented by Robert.A.Mundell and FDI trade complementarity theory represented by K.Kojima. This paper analyzes the current situation of China's financial services trade and financial industry's FDI inflow, and analyzes the possible influence of China's financial industry's FDI inflow on financial service trade. In the empirical analysis, Through the quarterly data on the actual amount of foreign direct investment in China's financial sector from the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2016, and the trade in financial services and its components in the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2016: finance Trade in services (banking and other financial services) and insurance services trade in import and export data for cointegration testing, It is concluded that there is an obvious long-term equilibrium and stable complementary relationship between the inflow of FDI in China's financial industry and the export of China's financial services trade. The complementary relationship between the inflow of FDI and the import of China's financial services trade is not obvious, mainly because it has little effect on the import of insurance services trade. By introducing other independent variables through principal component analysis, this paper synthetically considers the impact of FDI inflow in China's financial industry on the export of financial services trade. It is concluded that the inflow of FDI is an important factor affecting the export of China's financial services trade. This paper also uses the ridge regression model to obtain several independent variables including the inflow of FDI in China's financial industry to explain the export equation of China's financial services trade. By comparing the Ridge regression equation with the Co-integration equation, this paper holds that the Ridge regression equation is more effective in explaining the influence of FDI inflow on the export of China's financial services trade. Based on the comprehensive theory and empirical analysis, this paper concludes that the inflow of FDI in China's financial industry is obviously complementary to the export of China's financial services trade, and that the inflow of FDI in China's financial sector does not replace the import of China's financial services trade. From this point of view, the relationship between investment and trade is more in line with the FDI trade complementarity theory represented by K.Kojima. Therefore, our country should reasonably attract the financial industry FDI inflow and make full use of the finance industry FDI inflow to develop our country's financial service trade. In this study, six suggestions are put forward to make better use of the financial industry FDI inflow and the development of financial service trade. There are four innovations in this paper: besides the analysis of the overall financial services trade, we also study the impact of FDI inflow on the financial services trade (banking and other financial services) and insurance services trade; Fully explain and analyze the mechanism of the influence of FDI inflow in China's financial industry on China's financial services trade, and examine the static and dynamic status of variables in the empirical analysis. Adding principal component analysis and Ridge regression equation to introduce other independent variables makes the empirical analysis more comprehensive.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.68
本文编号：2424418
[Abstract]:Under the background of economic globalization, with the increasing importance of the service industry in the whole economy and the increasing position of the financial service industry in the service industry, the financial industry FDI has become an important part in many countries. After China's entry into the WTO, the scale of utilizing foreign capital in financial service industry has gradually expanded, and the inflow of FDI in financial industry has gradually increased, which has an inevitable impact on China's financial service trade. This paper analyzes the influence of FDI inflow on China's financial services trade by means of literature, comparative analysis, quantitative analysis, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. In theoretical analysis, This paper analyzes six classical theories of international investment and two main viewpoints on investment and trade relations in academic circles: FDI alternative trade theory represented by Robert.A.Mundell and FDI trade complementarity theory represented by K.Kojima. This paper analyzes the current situation of China's financial services trade and financial industry's FDI inflow, and analyzes the possible influence of China's financial industry's FDI inflow on financial service trade. In the empirical analysis, Through the quarterly data on the actual amount of foreign direct investment in China's financial sector from the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2016, and the trade in financial services and its components in the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2016: finance Trade in services (banking and other financial services) and insurance services trade in import and export data for cointegration testing, It is concluded that there is an obvious long-term equilibrium and stable complementary relationship between the inflow of FDI in China's financial industry and the export of China's financial services trade. The complementary relationship between the inflow of FDI and the import of China's financial services trade is not obvious, mainly because it has little effect on the import of insurance services trade. By introducing other independent variables through principal component analysis, this paper synthetically considers the impact of FDI inflow in China's financial industry on the export of financial services trade. It is concluded that the inflow of FDI is an important factor affecting the export of China's financial services trade. This paper also uses the ridge regression model to obtain several independent variables including the inflow of FDI in China's financial industry to explain the export equation of China's financial services trade. By comparing the Ridge regression equation with the Co-integration equation, this paper holds that the Ridge regression equation is more effective in explaining the influence of FDI inflow on the export of China's financial services trade. Based on the comprehensive theory and empirical analysis, this paper concludes that the inflow of FDI in China's financial industry is obviously complementary to the export of China's financial services trade, and that the inflow of FDI in China's financial sector does not replace the import of China's financial services trade. From this point of view, the relationship between investment and trade is more in line with the FDI trade complementarity theory represented by K.Kojima. Therefore, our country should reasonably attract the financial industry FDI inflow and make full use of the finance industry FDI inflow to develop our country's financial service trade. In this study, six suggestions are put forward to make better use of the financial industry FDI inflow and the development of financial service trade. There are four innovations in this paper: besides the analysis of the overall financial services trade, we also study the impact of FDI inflow on the financial services trade (banking and other financial services) and insurance services trade; Fully explain and analyze the mechanism of the influence of FDI inflow in China's financial industry on China's financial services trade, and examine the static and dynamic status of variables in the empirical analysis. Adding principal component analysis and Ridge regression equation to introduce other independent variables makes the empirical analysis more comprehensive.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.68
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