基于分层线性模型的消费者信心影响因素研究
发布时间：2019-02-19 18:48
【摘要】：目前对于消费者信心指数的调查主要是从消费者生活中的几个方面着手,包括经济发展、生活状况、就业、收入、物价、储蓄、购房、房价和投资等方面,对外公布的消费者信心指数是由这些信心分指数加权构成的。在消费者信心指数中的经济发展信心分指数指数可看做是一种综合的主观指数,而其他信心分指数均可由相应的经济指标来体现,例如就业状况可体现就业信心,收入状况可体现收入信心等。因此可认为这些信心分指数影响着经济发展信心指数。但是由于不同地区的宏观经济环境不同,因此这些信心分指数对经济发展信心的影响程度是不同的,因此分别构成了个人层次的以经济发展信心为因变量,其他信心分指数为自变量的层-1模型,地区层次的以层-1模型的截距项和斜率项为因变量,地区经济和社会指标为自变量的层-2模型。因此本文通过建立分层线性模型,研究地区经济社会指标、信心分指数和经济发展信心综合指数的关系。从最终模型结果来看,人均固定资产投资与经济发展信心之间是正向关系;就业信心和收入信心对经济发展信心的影响不存在地区差异;城镇医保参保率和市场化水平对储蓄信心和经济发展信心之间的作用为负向削弱作用;而购房信心对经济发展信心的影响确实存在着地区差异,但是本文所选的变量不能解释这一差异;城镇医保参保率对受教育程度和经济发展信心之间的作用为正向削弱关系,市场化水平对受教育程度和经济发展信心之间的作用为正向加强的关系。因此,政府在制定提高经济发展信心的政策从而促进消费时,可以参考这些影响地区间差异的经济社会质保指标。
[Abstract]:At present, the survey of consumer confidence index mainly starts from several aspects of consumer life, including economic development, living conditions, employment, income, prices, savings, housing purchases, housing prices and investment, etc. The published consumer confidence index is weighted by these sub-indices of confidence. The economic development confidence index in the consumer confidence index can be regarded as a comprehensive subjective index, while other confidence sub-indices can be reflected by the corresponding economic indicators, such as employment situation can reflect employment confidence. Income situation can reflect income confidence and so on. Therefore, it can be considered that these confidence sub-indices affect economic development confidence index. However, because of the different macroeconomic environment in different regions, the impact of these confidence sub-indices on economic development confidence is different, and thus constitutes a dependent variable of economic development confidence at the individual level. Other confidence index is the independent variable in the layer 1 model, the region level in which the intercept term and slope term of the layer 1 model are dependent variables, and the regional economic and social index is the independent variable. Therefore, by establishing a hierarchical linear model, this paper studies the relationship among regional economic and social indicators, confidence sub-index and economic development confidence comprehensive index. According to the results of the final model, there is a positive relationship between per capita fixed asset investment and economic development confidence, and there is no regional difference between employment confidence and income confidence on economic development confidence. The effect of the participation rate of urban medical insurance and the level of marketization on the confidence of savings and economic development is negative. However, there are regional differences in the influence of housing confidence on economic development confidence, but the variables selected in this paper can not explain the difference. The effect of urban medical insurance participation rate on education level and economic development confidence is positively weakened, while market-oriented level plays a positive role in strengthening education level and economic development confidence. Therefore, when the government formulates the policy of improving the confidence of economic development to promote consumption, it can refer to these economic and social quality assurance indicators that affect regional differences.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F713.55
本文编号：2426760
[Abstract]:At present, the survey of consumer confidence index mainly starts from several aspects of consumer life, including economic development, living conditions, employment, income, prices, savings, housing purchases, housing prices and investment, etc. The published consumer confidence index is weighted by these sub-indices of confidence. The economic development confidence index in the consumer confidence index can be regarded as a comprehensive subjective index, while other confidence sub-indices can be reflected by the corresponding economic indicators, such as employment situation can reflect employment confidence. Income situation can reflect income confidence and so on. Therefore, it can be considered that these confidence sub-indices affect economic development confidence index. However, because of the different macroeconomic environment in different regions, the impact of these confidence sub-indices on economic development confidence is different, and thus constitutes a dependent variable of economic development confidence at the individual level. Other confidence index is the independent variable in the layer 1 model, the region level in which the intercept term and slope term of the layer 1 model are dependent variables, and the regional economic and social index is the independent variable. Therefore, by establishing a hierarchical linear model, this paper studies the relationship among regional economic and social indicators, confidence sub-index and economic development confidence comprehensive index. According to the results of the final model, there is a positive relationship between per capita fixed asset investment and economic development confidence, and there is no regional difference between employment confidence and income confidence on economic development confidence. The effect of the participation rate of urban medical insurance and the level of marketization on the confidence of savings and economic development is negative. However, there are regional differences in the influence of housing confidence on economic development confidence, but the variables selected in this paper can not explain the difference. The effect of urban medical insurance participation rate on education level and economic development confidence is positively weakened, while market-oriented level plays a positive role in strengthening education level and economic development confidence. Therefore, when the government formulates the policy of improving the confidence of economic development to promote consumption, it can refer to these economic and social quality assurance indicators that affect regional differences.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F713.55
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