我国遭受“双反”的细分行业变动研究

发布时间：2019-03-16 12:26

【摘要】：随着中国外贸规模的迅速扩大,中国成为了贸易摩擦的集中对象,相关国家针对中国的贸易手段,从单个运用反倾销、反补贴逐渐上升到两者并用,即“双反”。自2004年初遇第一起“双反”调查以来,截止2013年底,我国已遭受69起“双反”调查,涉案行业不断扩大并显示出一些规律。中国成为“双反”的集中对象,原因是多元的：既有公平贸易原则、WTO规则检视下的客观性、产业更迭、政府的产业政策及措施、贸易结构与贸易量变化等层面的必然性,也有部分国家政治周期、选举周期乃至外交关系等层面的或然性。透过现象,通过对我国遭受“双反”细分行业变动特征及其引致因素的分析,探寻我国遭受“双反”细分行业的变动规律及对相关趋势进行预测,对我国“新常态”下继续扩大开放,具有理论和政策参考价值,这亦是本文的研究主旨。本文共分为六章。第一章是导论部分。第二章对本文相关的文献和理论进行回顾,以公平贸易理论及其主张、“双反”的贸易政策效应理论、引致“双反”的产业经济学机理及贸易政策的政治经济学作为本文的理论基础。第三章通过对我国遭受“双反”的细分行业类别分析,得出细分行业变动特征,包括钢铁及其制品行业仍是“双反”重灾区、我国遭受“双反”的细分行业范围不断扩大及国外对华“双反”向高新技术行业延伸。第四章对我国遭受“双反”的细分行业变动原因进行理论分析。第五章通过构建实证模型,运用负二项回归模型对我国遭受“双反”的细分行业变动原因进行实证分析,并结合上文总结的变动特征来总结我国行业面临“双反”的规律和趋势,得出传统行业仍是国外对华“双反”的重点行业以及我国和欧美等国在技术密集型行业领域的“双反”摩擦会愈演愈烈这一结论。第六章总结研究结论,并从结论中得到启发,即通过政府、行业协会及企业角度,为减少或避免国外对华“双反”有针对性的提出对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid expansion of the scale of China's foreign trade, China has become a concentrated object of trade friction. The trade means of the relevant countries against China, from single application of anti-dumping, countervailing gradually rose to the use of both, that is, "double countervailing". Since the first "double violation" investigation in 2004, by the end of 2013, China has been subjected to 69 "double violation" investigations. The industry involved in the case continues to expand and show some rules. China has become the focus of the "double Reflections" because of its pluralism: the inevitability of existing fair trade principles, objectivity under the review of WTO rules, industrial change, government industrial policies and measures, trade structure and trade volume changes, and so on. There are also some political cycles, electoral cycles and even diplomatic relations at the level of probability. Through the phenomenon, through the analysis of the changing characteristics and the cause factors of the "double reverse" subdivision industry in our country, this paper explores the changing law of the "double reverse" subdivision industry in our country and forecasts the related trends. It is of theoretical and policy reference value to continue to open up to the "new normal" in China, which is also the main purpose of this paper. This paper is divided into six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. The second chapter reviews the relevant literature and theories of this paper, based on the fair trade theory and its propositions, the theory of the effect of trade policy of the "double negatives". The mechanism of industrial economics and the political economics of trade policy are the theoretical basis of this paper. In the third chapter, through the analysis of the subdivided industries that our country has suffered from the "double Reflections", it is concluded that the changing characteristics of the subdivided industries, including the iron and steel industry and its products industry, are still the hardest hit areas. China has suffered from the expansion of the scope of the "double Reflections" industry and the extension of the "double Reflections" to the high-tech industry by foreign countries. The fourth chapter makes a theoretical analysis on the causes of the change of the subdivided industries that our country suffers from the "double Reflections". In the fifth chapter, we use the negative binomial regression model to analyze the causes of the change of the subdivided industries in China through the construction of the empirical model and the negative binomial regression model. Combined with the characteristics of the changes summarized above, this paper summarizes the law and trend of the "double negative" faced by the Chinese industry. It is concluded that the traditional industry is still the key industry in foreign countries and the friction between China and Europe and America in the field of technology-intensive industries will become more and more serious. The sixth chapter summarizes the research conclusion, and gets the inspiration from the conclusion, namely, through the government, the trade association and the enterprise angle, in order to reduce or avoid the foreign "double revolt" targeted countermeasure suggestion.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.02

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