中国—新加坡自由贸易区的经济效应研究
发布时间：2019-04-16 09:00
【摘要】：中国—新加坡自由贸易区作为中国和东盟单个国家之间首个建立的自贸区,对于我国逐步构筑起立足周边、辐射“一带一路”、面向全球的自由贸易区网络具有显著的示范效应和借鉴意义。分析研究中国—新加坡自由贸易区成立后所带来的经济效应,能够加快中新双边经贸合作的步伐,拓展两国自由贸易关系的深度与广度,进一步提升我国经济的对外开放水平。在选用2004—2013年中国新加坡两国进出口额作为样本数据的基础上,通过选取贸易结合度指数(TCD)、显示性竞争优势指数(CA)、综合贸易互补性指数(TCI)、产业内贸易指数(G-L指数)这四个指数分别从两国贸易联系紧密程度、出口比较优势、互补性强弱程度和产业内贸易形式四个方面开展了实证研究。研究结果表明,两国贸易联系紧密,各自存在不同的出口比较优势产业,双边贸易具有较强的互补性,贸易形式主要表现为产业内贸易。在对中国新加坡双边贸易现状进行分析后,基于巴拉萨模型,分析研究了中国—新加坡自由贸易区成立后所带来的贸易创造和贸易转移效应。分析结果说明,由于受到各种因素的影响,《中国—新加坡自由贸易协定》的签署,并没有产生明显的贸易创造和贸易转移效应。随后,对中国—新加坡自由贸易区成立后的动态经济效应进行了探讨,即研究了两国自由贸易区协议签署后所带来的经济增长效应、投资效应、竞争效应以及规模经济效应等动态效应。通过以上分析我们知道,建立中国—新加坡自由贸易区有助于实现中国经济的快速平稳发展;新加坡对中国的直接投资额远高于中国对新加坡的直接投资额,两国在投资领域的选择上存在着较大的不同,中国对新加坡投资还蕴含着巨大的增长空间和发展潜力;中国—新加坡自由贸易区的建立显著提高了竞争效应,相比中国,新加坡竞争力总体而言处于不利地位;得益于中国—新加坡自由贸易区的建立和发展,市场规模和商品需求分别得到扩大和增加,两国比较优势商品产业里的厂商可以扩大生产规模,此时,产量的增加使得平均生产成本从长期来看呈现出下降趋势,最终实现规模经济效应。最后,为了推动中国新加坡两国经贸合作关系实现新跨越、迈上新台阶,提出了进一步深化中国—新加坡自由贸易区发展的对策建议。深入开展政府间合作项目,加大合作共建力度,实现互惠互利、双方共赢;优化对新加坡贸易出口结构,扩大服务贸易比重,提升我国服务贸易在新加坡市场上的影响力和竞争力;鼓励中方企业“走出去”,完善投资服务体系,保障好、维护好、发展好我国企业在新加坡的合法权益。
[Abstract]:As the first free trade area established between China and individual ASEAN countries, the China-Singapore Free Trade area has gradually built up a foothold in China's surroundings and radiated "Belt and Road Initiative". The global free trade area network has obvious demonstration effect and reference significance. An analysis of the economic effects brought by the establishment of the China-Singapore Free Trade area can speed up the pace of bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and Singapore, expand the depth and breadth of the free trade relations between the two countries, and further promote the opening-up level of China's economy to the outside world. On the basis of selecting the import and export volume of China and Singapore from 2004 to 2013 as the sample data, through selecting the trade union index (TCD),) to show the competitive advantage index (CA), the (CA), comprehensive trade complementarity index (TCI),) is selected. The four indexes of intra-industry trade index are studied from four aspects: the degree of close trade connection, the comparative advantage of export, the degree of complementarity and the form of intra-industry trade. The results show that the two countries are closely connected with each other and have different export comparative advantage industries. The bilateral trade has strong complementarity and the trade form is mainly expressed as intra-industry trade. After analyzing the current situation of China-Singapore bilateral trade, based on the Barraza model, this paper analyzes and studies the trade creation and trade transfer effect brought by the establishment of China-Singapore Free Trade area. The results show that the signing of China-Singapore Free Trade Agreement has no obvious effect on trade creation and trade transfer due to the influence of various factors. Then, the dynamic economic effect after the establishment of the China-Singapore Free Trade area is discussed, that is, the economic growth effect and investment effect brought by the signing of the free trade area agreement between the two countries. Dynamic effects such as competition effect and scale economy effect. Through the above analysis, we know that the establishment of China-Singapore Free Trade area is conducive to the rapid and stable development of China's economy; Singapore's direct investment in China is much higher than that of China's in Singapore. There are great differences in the choice of investment between the two countries. China's investment in Singapore also contains huge growth space and development potential. The establishment of China-Singapore Free Trade area has significantly improved the competitive effect, compared with China, Singapore's competitiveness is generally at a disadvantage; Thanks to the establishment and development of the China-Singapore Free Trade area, the size of the market and the demand for commodities have been expanded and increased respectively. At this time, manufacturers in the comparative advantage commodity industries of the two countries can expand their production scale. The increase of output makes the average production cost show a downward trend in the long run, and finally realize the economies of scale effect. Finally, in order to promote the economic and trade cooperation between Singapore and China to achieve new leaps and bounds, this paper puts forward some suggestions to further deepen the development of China-Singapore Free Trade area. We will carry out in-depth intergovernmental cooperation projects, strengthen cooperation and joint construction, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results between the two sides. To optimize the export structure of trade to Singapore, expand the proportion of trade in services, and enhance the influence and competitiveness of China's trade in services in the Singapore market; Chinese enterprises are encouraged to "go out", improve the investment service system, safeguard, safeguard and develop the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises in Singapore.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7;F753.39
本文编号：2458654
[Abstract]:As the first free trade area established between China and individual ASEAN countries, the China-Singapore Free Trade area has gradually built up a foothold in China's surroundings and radiated "Belt and Road Initiative". The global free trade area network has obvious demonstration effect and reference significance. An analysis of the economic effects brought by the establishment of the China-Singapore Free Trade area can speed up the pace of bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and Singapore, expand the depth and breadth of the free trade relations between the two countries, and further promote the opening-up level of China's economy to the outside world. On the basis of selecting the import and export volume of China and Singapore from 2004 to 2013 as the sample data, through selecting the trade union index (TCD),) to show the competitive advantage index (CA), the (CA), comprehensive trade complementarity index (TCI),) is selected. The four indexes of intra-industry trade index are studied from four aspects: the degree of close trade connection, the comparative advantage of export, the degree of complementarity and the form of intra-industry trade. The results show that the two countries are closely connected with each other and have different export comparative advantage industries. The bilateral trade has strong complementarity and the trade form is mainly expressed as intra-industry trade. After analyzing the current situation of China-Singapore bilateral trade, based on the Barraza model, this paper analyzes and studies the trade creation and trade transfer effect brought by the establishment of China-Singapore Free Trade area. The results show that the signing of China-Singapore Free Trade Agreement has no obvious effect on trade creation and trade transfer due to the influence of various factors. Then, the dynamic economic effect after the establishment of the China-Singapore Free Trade area is discussed, that is, the economic growth effect and investment effect brought by the signing of the free trade area agreement between the two countries. Dynamic effects such as competition effect and scale economy effect. Through the above analysis, we know that the establishment of China-Singapore Free Trade area is conducive to the rapid and stable development of China's economy; Singapore's direct investment in China is much higher than that of China's in Singapore. There are great differences in the choice of investment between the two countries. China's investment in Singapore also contains huge growth space and development potential. The establishment of China-Singapore Free Trade area has significantly improved the competitive effect, compared with China, Singapore's competitiveness is generally at a disadvantage; Thanks to the establishment and development of the China-Singapore Free Trade area, the size of the market and the demand for commodities have been expanded and increased respectively. At this time, manufacturers in the comparative advantage commodity industries of the two countries can expand their production scale. The increase of output makes the average production cost show a downward trend in the long run, and finally realize the economies of scale effect. Finally, in order to promote the economic and trade cooperation between Singapore and China to achieve new leaps and bounds, this paper puts forward some suggestions to further deepen the development of China-Singapore Free Trade area. We will carry out in-depth intergovernmental cooperation projects, strengthen cooperation and joint construction, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results between the two sides. To optimize the export structure of trade to Singapore, expand the proportion of trade in services, and enhance the influence and competitiveness of China's trade in services in the Singapore market; Chinese enterprises are encouraged to "go out", improve the investment service system, safeguard, safeguard and develop the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises in Singapore.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7;F753.39
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