中国对其他金砖国家出口贸易潜力研究

发布时间：2019-05-09 22:11

【摘要】：在改革开放之后,随着国内产业结构的不断调整和全球经济一体化进程的不断推进,中国的对外贸易在双重作用力的推动下发展迅速,并表现出了较为强劲的发展势头。但目前限制中国对外贸易的进一步发展的因素仍然很多,例如中国的对外贸易市场过度集中在发达国家,对外贸易的产品过度集中在加工型产品等等,因此为了突破目前的贸易困境,中国应该将视线转向具有较强发展潜力的新兴经济体,而作为主要新兴经济体之一的金砖国家自然而然的成为我国发展对外贸易的主要目标。再加上自金砖国家开展贸易合作以来,中国在多个领域都与其他金砖国家展开过合作,彼此之间贸易往来也愈加密切,使得其他金砖国家逐步成为了我国的主要贸易合作伙伴之一。因此,在此基础上,测算中国对金砖国家出口竞争力及贸易潜力,进而根据分析结果为提升中国对金砖国家出口竞争力及拓展出口贸易潜力提供政策建议,对于我国与其他新兴经济体进行合作具有借鉴意义,并对于我国实施贸易多元化、开拓贸易空间有着十分重要的现实意义。本文主要分为六部分。第一部分是绪论,对本文的研究背景、写作思路和研究方法等方面进行了介绍。然后,第二部分对论文中涉及的比较优势理论、要素禀赋理论、竞争优势理论和国家竞争理论进行了简单的介绍。第三部分从数额和结构两个方面对中国对其他金砖国家贸易出口现有情况进行了分析,为后文分析竞争力和出口潜力打下基础。第四部分基于第二部分的理论基础,运用贸易竞争力指数(TC)和显示性比较优势指数(RCA)对中国对金砖国家出口贸易竞争力进行了测算,并对其变化趋势进行了分析。第五部分将经济规模、地理距离、人口规模、对外开放程度以及选取的虚拟变量等因素引人贸易引力模型,这些因素如何影响中国对金砖国家货物出口贸易额进行了分析,进而根据回归分析结果对中国对金砖国家出口潜力进行了测算。最后根据前文的理论和实证分析结果,提出了促进中国对金砖国家出口贸易的政策建议。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, with the continuous adjustment of domestic industrial structure and the continuous promotion of global economic integration, China's foreign trade has developed rapidly under the promotion of dual forces, and has shown a relatively strong momentum of development. However, at present, there are still many factors restricting the further development of China's foreign trade, such as the excessive concentration of China's foreign trade market in developed countries, the excessive concentration of foreign trade products in processed products, and so on. Therefore, in order to break through the current trade predicament, China should turn its attention to the emerging economies with strong development potential, and the BRICS, as one of the major emerging economies, has naturally become the main goal of China's foreign trade development. In addition, since the BRICS countries launched trade cooperation, China has cooperated with other BRICS countries in a number of fields, and trade exchanges between them have become closer and closer. As a result, other BRICS countries have gradually become one of China's main trading partners. Therefore, on this basis, we measure China's export competitiveness and trade potential to BRICS countries, and then provide policy recommendations for enhancing China's export competitiveness and expanding export trade potential to BRICS countries according to the results of the analysis. It is of great practical significance for China to cooperate with other emerging economies, and for China to implement trade diversification and open up trade space. This paper is divided into six parts. The first part is the introduction, which introduces the research background, writing ideas and research methods of this paper. Then, the second part briefly introduces the comparative advantage theory, factor endowment theory, competitive advantage theory and national competition theory. The third part analyzes the current situation of China's trade exports to other BRICS countries from two aspects of quantity and structure, which lays the foundation for the later analysis of competitiveness and export potential. Based on the theoretical basis of the second part, the fourth part calculates China's export trade competitiveness to BRICS countries by using trade competitiveness index (TC) and display comparative advantage index (RCA), and analyzes its changing trend. In the fifth part, the economic scale, geographical distance, population size, the degree of opening to the outside world and the selected virtual variables are used to induce the gravity model of trade, and how these factors affect China's export trade volume of goods to the BRICS countries are analyzed. Then, according to the results of regression analysis, the export potential of China to BRICS countries is calculated. Finally, according to the previous theoretical and empirical analysis results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote China's export trade to BRICS countries.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62

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