预期形成机制的选择、宏观政策搭配与通胀预期管理

发布时间：2018-01-02 05:35

本文关键词：预期形成机制的选择、宏观政策搭配与通胀预期管理　出处：《财经研究》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章从中国宏观政策现实出发,分析了预期形成机制对宏观政策搭配及通胀预期管理的影响。研究发现,基于学习型预期的动态随机一般均衡模型不仅能刻画预期通胀与实际通胀之间的趋势一致性与持续偏离,还能反映中国人民银行所公布的物价预期指数和国家统计局所公布的消费者预期指数的变化情况。从通胀预期管理角度看,宏观政策搭配不仅受基本面因素制约,还受公众预期形成机制的显著影响,并且应适时地由传统的"一松一紧"模式转变为"双松"或"双紧"模式。在当前形势下,宏观政策应侧重于"精确制导式"的定向调控,加大经济体制改革力度,完善经济供给面,以配合总需求并锁定政策目标。同时,通过积极沟通,塑造和稳定公众对宏观政策的预期,扩大政策调控空间,以实现经济平稳增长。
[Abstract]:Based on the reality of macro policy in China, this paper analyzes the influence of expectation formation mechanism on macro policy collocation and inflation expectation management. The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model based on learning expectation can not only describe the trend consistency and persistent deviation between expected inflation and real inflation. It also reflects the changes in the price expectations index published by the people's Bank of China and the consumer expectation index published by the National Bureau of Statistics. Macroeconomic policy collocation is not only restricted by fundamental factors, but also significantly influenced by the formation mechanism of public expectations. And the traditional mode of "one loose and one tight" should be changed into "double loose" or "double tight" mode in time. Under the current situation, the macro policy should focus on the directional control of "precision guidance". Strengthen the reform of the economic system, improve the supply side of the economy, in order to meet the total demand and lock in policy objectives. At the same time, through positive communication, shape and stabilize the public expectations of macroeconomic policies, expand the space for policy control. To achieve steady economic growth.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573206);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71203175) 陕西省软科学项目(2015KRM089)
【分类号】：F120;F822.5
【正文快照】： 一、引言当前,随着发达经济体的政府债务高企和名义利率趋近零,甚至转换为负值,不仅各国宏观政策调控空间逐步收窄,协调难度增大,而且调控绩效急剧下降,尤其是在步入负利率时代之后,支撑传统宏观政策调控的理论逐步失效,增加了未来宏观调控的不确定性,这使预期管理,尤其是通胀

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