京津冀区域金融发展收敛性研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 05:27

本文关键词：京津冀区域金融发展收敛性研究　出处：《天津工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：京津冀区域是我国继长三角、珠三角后的第三大都市圈,近年来,京、津、冀各自的金融业发展进步很大,但三地的金融合作进展缓慢,更多停留在倡议、研讨等初级阶段,与同时期提出区域金融合作的泛珠三角地区相比逐渐落后,影响京津冀区域的协调发展。因此,对区域金融差距的变动趋势与演变规律进行研究,并据此提出合作对策具有重要的现实意义。目前区域金融收敛性的研究大多是基于政府间协作治理的定性研究,也有学者尝试运用非参数估计、时间序列、泰尔指数、空间计量、基尼系数等方法进行定性研究,但主要集中于我国东中西部整体、粤港澳、长三角、珠三角等地区,对京津冀地区的研究较少见。本文基于金融学、区域经济学、地理经济学、空间计量学研究京津冀区域金融发展收敛性,在理论分析基础上,以京津冀区域43个区县为样本,基于金融相关比率、运用地理加权回归模型、空间计量模型对京津冀金融收敛性进行定量研究,以实证分析京津冀区域金融的收敛性、检验不同方法的有效性,弥补同类研究的不足。然后,基于研究结论,为三地金融合作提出可行、有效的对策建议。本文研究分两大步:第一步,理论研究。运用文献分析法,查找、梳理相关文献、对其进行比较研究、归纳总结,完成地理加权回归模型、空间经济计量模型等的理论研究。第二步,实证研究。运用OLS估计,验证京津冀区域金融发展是否存在β收敛;建立GWR模型,进一步验证京津冀区域金融发展的收敛性,比较OLS模型与GWR模型的适用性;建立空间计量经济模型,进行FIR的空间相关性检验,比较空间滞后模型与空间误差模型的适用性。实证研究的主要结论为:第一,研究运用的GWR估计方法相较OLS模型估计更加准确,更能有效的描述京津冀区域金融收敛问题;第二,从2000年与2015年京津冀区域金融发展水平的地理格局看,发展水平相近的区县在空间上形成集聚,即发达区县与发达区县相邻,而落后区县与落后区县相邻;第三,2000年至2015年间,作为新兴经济圈的京津冀区域,其区县的金融发展总体上呈现出β收敛趋势;第四,2000年至2015年间,京津冀区域各区县的金融发展总体上呈现出空间异质性与空间相关性,空间异质性与空间相关性的并存没有改变收敛趋势,但使得各地区的收敛速度下降,说明京津冀区域金融发展需要有效的推动力。
[Abstract]:The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is the third metropolitan area after the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. In recent years, the financial industry of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has made great progress, but the financial cooperation of the three places has made slow progress, and more stay in the initiative. Compared with the Pan-Pearl River Delta region which put forward the regional financial cooperation in the same period, the primary stage of the study gradually lags behind, which affects the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The change trend and evolution law of regional financial gap are studied. At present, most of the research on regional financial convergence is based on the qualitative research of intergovernmental collaborative governance, and some scholars try to use non-parametric estimation, time series. Tyr index, spatial measurement, Gini coefficient and other methods of qualitative research, but mainly focused on the whole of China, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other regions. This paper is based on finance, regional economics, geographical economics, spatial metrology to study the convergence of regional financial development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, on the basis of theoretical analysis. Taking 43 districts and counties of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as samples, based on the ratio of financial correlation, the paper makes a quantitative study on the convergence of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei financial convergence by using geo-weighted regression model and spatial econometric model. Empirical analysis of the convergence of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional finance, testing the effectiveness of different methods, to make up for the lack of similar research. Then, based on the conclusions of the study, for the three regions of financial cooperation put forward feasible. Effective countermeasures and suggestions. This study is divided into two major steps: the first step, theoretical research. The use of literature analysis, search, combing the relevant literature, comparative research, summary, the completion of geographical weighted regression model. The second step, empirical research. Using OLS estimation, to verify whether there is 尾 convergence in the financial development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Establish GWR model to further verify the convergence of regional financial development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, compare the applicability of OLS model and GWR model; The spatial econometric model is established, the spatial correlation test of FIR is carried out, and the applicability of spatial lag model and spatial error model is compared. The main conclusions of the empirical research are as follows: first. The GWR estimation method used in this paper is more accurate than that of OLS model and can effectively describe the problem of financial convergence in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Second, from 2000 and 2015, the level of regional financial development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei geographical pattern, the level of similar development in the formation of regional counties in the spatial agglomeration, that is, developed counties and developed counties adjacent. The backward counties are adjacent to the backward districts and counties; Thirdly, from 2000 to 2015, the financial development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, as a new economic circle, showed a trend of 尾 convergence. From 4th to 4th to 2015, the financial development of each district of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed spatial heterogeneity and spatial correlation, and the coexistence of spatial heterogeneity and spatial correlation did not change the convergence trend. However, the convergence rate of various regions is reduced, indicating that the financial development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei needs an effective driving force.
【学位授予单位】：天津工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.7;F127

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