我国外汇储备对宽松货币政策传导的影响

发布时间：2018-01-09 09:14

本文关键词：我国外汇储备对宽松货币政策传导的影响　出处：《江汉论坛》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在我国外汇储备大量积累的背景下,突然的经济下滑冲击导致央行必须实施宽松货币政策时,这种前期的外汇储备积累和危机时期外汇增长的速度会对宽松货币政策效果产生重要影响。通过对比分析1998年亚洲金融危机时期、2008年次贷危机时期和2015年经济结构调整时期外汇储备积累、增长情况和宽松货币政策的传导效果,我们发现外汇资产的余额规模和增长速度一方面影响商业银行的流动性,另一方面影响公众预期和市场信心,并从这两个方面影响宽松货币政策传导效应。央行在把握宽松货币政策力度时,需要考虑外汇储备增量与存量规模给商业银行流动性和公众预期带来的影响,因为市场信心不足和悲观的公众预期会使宽松货币政策的传导受阻,而充足的市场信心和乐观的公众预期可能会导致宽松货币政策被过度传导。
[Abstract]:In the context of the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in China, the sudden economic downturn has caused the central bank to implement loose monetary policy. This early accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and the rate of foreign exchange growth during the crisis period will have an important impact on the effect of loose monetary policy. Through a comparative analysis of the Asian financial crisis in 1998. Foreign exchange reserve accumulation, growth and transmission effect of loose monetary policy during the period of subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 and economic structural adjustment in 2015. We find that the balance size and growth rate of foreign exchange assets affect the liquidity of commercial banks on the one hand, and public expectations and market confidence on the other. The central bank should consider the influence of the increment of foreign exchange reserve and the scale of stock on the liquidity and public expectation of commercial banks when the central bank grasps the strength of loose monetary policy. Lack of market confidence and pessimistic public expectations will hinder the transmission of loose monetary policy, while adequate market confidence and optimistic public expectations may lead to excessive transmission of loose monetary policy.
【作者单位】：淮阴工学院商学院;浙江工业大学经贸管理学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“增长转型如何帮助中国经济跨越‘中等收入陷阱’”(15YJC790031)
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.6
【正文快照】： 一、引言关于我国外汇储备对货币政策传导的影响,已有文献主要集中讨论我国外汇储备增长带来的货币政策独立性下降的问题。主流观点认为随着外汇储备的增长,央行为了避免人民币快速升值,积极干预外汇市场,被动投放大量基础货币。虽然央行发行大量票据对冲基础货币的投放,但这

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