人民币汇率对货币政策影响研究——基于前瞻性泰勒规则

发布时间：2018-03-06 02:02

本文选题：人民币汇率　切入点：货币政策　出处：《佛山科学技术学院学报(社会科学版)》2016年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：选取了1994第一季度到2012年第四季度68个样本数据对前瞻性货币政策反应函数进行实证研究发现:(1)实际有效汇率缺口反应系数为负数,其绝对值较大,说明了央行制定货币政策时很大程度上考虑了汇率的波动,即为了实现汇率目标,损害了我国货币政策的独立性;(2)通货膨胀缺口系数小于1,我国的通货膨胀具有自我实现机制;(3)VAR模型的结果显示,汇率不仅会通过通货膨胀和产出间接影响利率,而且作为一个独立的变量对央行利率的调整直接产生影响。因此我国的货币政策在很大程度上受到当前汇率制度的制约,无法真正实现其独立性,尤其在外部环境恶化时,以汇率稳定为目标的货币政策更会使经济偏离其均衡值。
[Abstract]:This paper selects 68 sample data from the first quarter of 1994 to in the fourth quarter of 2012 to carry out empirical research on the forward-looking monetary policy response function. It is found that the real effective exchange rate gap response coefficient is negative, and its absolute value is larger. It shows that when the central bank formulates monetary policy, it takes into account to a large extent the fluctuation of the exchange rate, that is, in order to achieve the exchange rate target, The inflation gap coefficient is less than 1. The results of the VAR model show that the exchange rate not only affects the interest rate indirectly through inflation and output, but also has a self-actualization mechanism. Moreover, as an independent variable, it has a direct impact on the adjustment of the central bank's interest rate. Therefore, the monetary policy of our country is largely restricted by the current exchange rate regime and can not really realize its independence, especially when the external environment deteriorates. Monetary policy, which aims to stabilize the exchange rate, will cause the economy to deviate from its equilibrium value.
【作者单位】：广东财经大学金融学院;中国建设银行广州市海珠支行;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(12BJL056);国家社会科学基金项目(13BJY166) 教育部人文社科一般项目(12YJA790142)
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.6

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