我国数量型货币政策冲击效应的时变分析

发布时间：2018-03-27 09:10

本文选题：数量型货币政策　切入点：时变效应　出处：《中山大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年06期

【摘要】：渐变性改革和结构性调整构成了我国转轨时期宏观经济的基本特征,在此背景下,我国货币政策的宏观调控效应表现出可能的阶段性甚至时变性特点。为量化货币政策效应可能的时变性,本文采用TVPSVAR模型,利用我国1996年1月至2016年7月的宏观数据来研究数量型货币政策冲击对产出增长和价格水平的影响。研究结果表明,短期内正向的货币政策冲击对我国的经济增长有促进作用,长期货币超中性,且货币政策对产出增长的影响机制十分稳定;随着我国以市场为导向的价格形成机制改革,价格水平对货币政策调控反应愈加敏感,货币政策影响物价水平的传导机制表现出时变性特征。
[Abstract]:Gradual change reform and structural adjustment constitute the basic characteristics of China's macro-economy during the transition period. In order to quantify the possible temporal variability of monetary policy effect, TVPSVAR model is used in this paper. Based on the macro data from January 1996 to July 2016, this paper studies the impact of quantitative monetary policy shocks on output growth and price level. The results show that the short-term positive monetary policy shocks can promote China's economic growth. With the reform of market oriented price formation mechanism in China, the price level is more sensitive to monetary policy regulation and control, and the influence mechanism of monetary policy on output growth is very stable, and the price level is more and more sensitive to monetary policy regulation and control with the reform of market oriented price formation mechanism in China. The transmission mechanism of monetary policy affecting price level shows time-varying characteristics.
【作者单位】：中山大学岭南学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(17YJA790011) 广东省自然科学基金(2017A030311038) 中山大学高校基本科研业务费(14wkzs03)
【分类号】：F822.0

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