完成“811汇改”:人民币汇率形成机制改革方向分析

发布时间：2018-05-17 03:26

本文选题：汇改 + 人民币汇率形成机制改革　；参考：《国际经济评论》2017年01期

【摘要】：2015年"811汇改"是央行推动汇率机制市场化,实行汇率制度由"类爬行安排"到浮动汇率制度过渡的一次重要尝试。然而,经过三天的试验后,央行放弃了原定的汇率改革目标。此后,央行提出了新的中间价形成机制,在"参考前日收盘价决定当日中间价"的基础上,引入了"稳定24小时篮子货币"因素。在新的汇率形成机制中,由于美元指数和其他货币的变动难以预测,人民币汇率变动不确定性显著上升,在一定程度上削弱了单边投机力量。然而,现行汇率形成机制并不能扭转人民币贬值趋势,也不能消除人民币贬值预期,同时妨碍了央行根据国内经济的基本面实施独立的货币政策,而且还会因为人为的"双向波动"造成外汇储备的损耗。我们主张尽快实现停止对外汇市场的干预,让人民币自由浮动。消除人民币贬值预期的唯一办法就是让人民币汇率市场化。希望央行能沿"811汇改"的思路,在做好预案的基础上,早日完成中国汇率制度改革。
[Abstract]:The "811 exchange rate reform" in 2015 is an important attempt for the central bank to promote the marketization of the exchange rate mechanism and implement the transition of the exchange rate system from the "kind of crawling arrangement" to the floating exchange rate system. However, after three days of experimentation, the central bank abandoned its original exchange rate reform target. Since then, the central bank has proposed a new mechanism for the formation of the central price, which introduced the factor of "stabilizing the basket of currencies 24 hours ago" on the basis of "making reference to the closing price of the day before the day when the central price was set." In the new exchange rate formation mechanism, the volatility of the RMB exchange rate has risen significantly due to the unpredictable changes in the dollar index and other currencies, weakening unilateral speculative forces to some extent. However, the current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of RMB depreciation, nor can it eliminate the expectation of RMB depreciation. At the same time, it hinders the central bank from implementing an independent monetary policy according to the fundamentals of the domestic economy. But also because of artificial "two-way fluctuations" caused by the loss of foreign exchange reserves. We advocate halting intervention in the foreign exchange market as soon as possible and allowing the yuan to float freely. The only way to eliminate expectations of renminbi depreciation is to make the exchange rate marketable. It is hoped that the central bank will complete the reform of China's exchange rate regime at an early date on the basis of the preliminary plan and the thinking of "811 exchange rate reform."
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;
【基金】：国家社科基金课题(基金批准号:16ZDA031,13AJL008)资助
【分类号】：F832.6

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