中国通货膨胀动态特征及其政策启示

发布时间：2018-06-08 10:55

本文选题：通货膨胀 + 动态特征　；参考：《南开经济研究》2017年05期

【摘要】：本文主要以1996年1月—2015年12月的居民消费价格指数CPI、货币供应量和财政支出月度同比增长率等数据为基础,通过分析变量统计特征和构建区制转移模型,对我国通货膨胀的波动性和惯性特征进行了检验,同时还分析了"新常态"时期经济增长、通货膨胀和宏观经济政策的趋势性特征。研究结果表明,我国通货膨胀长期以来存在较强惯性,CPI增长率与波动率总呈相同走势,各宏观经济变量均出现了微波化,本轮"低通胀"周期的持续期可能为3.34年到4.26年左右等。由此提出了政府不应轻易实施全面宽松的货币和财政政策,而应继续采用非常规货币工具和结构型财政支出工具,优化政策结构,在审慎政策刺激的同时要注意其与通货膨胀期限结构的匹配等政策建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of the consumer price index (CPI), the monthly growth rate of money supply and fiscal expenditure from January 1996 to December 2015, this paper analyzes the statistical characteristics of variables and constructs a regional system transfer model. The fluctuation and inertia characteristics of inflation in China are tested, and the trend characteristics of economic growth, inflation and macroeconomic policies during the "New normal" period are also analyzed. The results show that the growth rate and fluctuation rate of CPI are always the same trend of inflation in China for a long time, and all macroeconomic variables are microwave. The current "low inflation" cycle is likely to last between 3.34 and 4.26 years. Therefore, the government should not easily implement comprehensive monetary and fiscal policies, but should continue to use non-conventional monetary instruments and structural fiscal expenditure instruments to optimize the policy structure. At the same time, we should pay attention to the matching of the term structure of inflation and other policy recommendations.
【作者单位】：东北师范大学经济学院;吉林大学商学院;吉林大学数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“引领经济发展新常态的市场基础、体制机制和发展方式研究”(15ZDC008);国家社科基金重点项目“我国经济发展新常态的形成机理、趋势性特征及经济政策取向研究”(15AZD001)的支持
【分类号】：F822.5

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