资本项目开放与通货膨胀:流出开放与流入开放的异质性

发布时间：2018-06-21 23:28

本文选题：资本项目开放 + 资本流入与流出　；参考：《经济评论》2016年01期

【摘要】：利用91个国家1995-2005年度关于资本项目开放指数的面板数据,本文研究了资本项目流入开放与流出开放对通货膨胀率的影响。研究发现,资本项目流入开放能够提高通货膨胀率,但结果并不稳健;流出开放能够显著降低通货膨胀率10个百分点左右。并且,本文从投资需求和货币政策两个方面验证了资本项目开放对通货膨胀率的影响机制,结果显示,流入开放和流出开放对投资率没有显著影响;流入开放和流出开放在固定汇率制国家对通货膨胀率影响显著,但在浮动汇率制国家效果不显著。这表明资本项目开放对通货膨胀的影响机制主要通过货币政策效应,并且流出开放的约束效应使得资本项目开放与通货膨胀呈现负向关系。本文研究结果提供了关于资本项目开放对通货膨胀率影响机制新的证据。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data on the capital account opening index in 91 countries from 1995 to 2005, this paper studies the impact of capital account opening and capital account opening on the inflation rate. The study found that the opening of capital account inflow can increase inflation rate, but the results are not steady; the outflow liberalization can significantly reduce inflation rate by about 10 percentage points. Moreover, this paper verifies the influence mechanism of capital account opening on inflation rate from two aspects of investment demand and monetary policy. The results show that the opening of inflow and outflow has no significant effect on the investment rate. The effect of inflow opening and outflow opening on inflation rate is significant in countries with fixed exchange rate system, but not in floating exchange rate countries. This indicates that the influence mechanism of capital account opening on inflation is mainly through the monetary policy effect, and the constraint effect of outflow opening makes the capital account opening and inflation showing a negative relationship. The results of this study provide new evidence on the impact mechanism of capital account opening on inflation rate.
【作者单位】：北京大学光华管理学院;北京大学国家发展研究院;
【基金】：北京大学新结构经济学专项研究基金资助
【分类号】：F832.6

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