复杂项目活动不确定性对进度绩效的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 23:34

本文关键词：复杂项目活动不确定性对进度绩效的影响研究　出处：《南京航空航天大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在竞争激烈且高违约金的市场经济中,项目完工期至关重要。随着中国改革开放30多年以来,经济建设一直处于高速发展,大型复杂项目接踵而至,比如世界最大填海造地项目——上海临港新城,工程总投资250亿元,世界最长的高速铁路项目——京沪高速铁路,工程总投资2200亿元等。一个项目在计划工期内完工并交付使用是投资者最关心的核心问题之一,也是项目管理的最主要的内容之一,对于大型复杂项目也不例外。复杂项目具有高度不确定性,其不确定性体现在项目活动间的高度耦合,经常性项目活动重叠,大量信息迭代,实施周期长以及可能进行多次返工等方面。在项目活动不确定性的影响下,复杂项目通常无法在计划工期和计划成本内完成。因此,在项目完工期的研究基础上,将项目成本和质量,一并作为进度绩效。为了控制项目活动的不确定性对项目进度的影响程度,即从项目活动重叠、活动返工和活动迭代等方面,研究它们对进度绩效的影响情况。因此,本文从四个方面展开研究,第一,在获得早期信息和完成信息的基础上,分析了活动重叠的实现方式,然后采用设计结构矩阵的方法,描述和分析了活动重叠对返工、项目完工期和质量损失的影响;为了发挥活动重叠正向效益,在成本的角度构建活动重叠综合效益模型。第二,为了分析活动迭代对项目完工期的影响,在顺序迭代下,采用马尔科夫链的方法估计耦合任务的完工期。第三,为了反映项目进度状态,采用系统动力学仿真方法模拟项目活动的进度状态,分析了输出时间因子变动和输入时间因子变动对项目完工期的影响情况,识别出使得项目完工期波动比较大的时间因子和对时间因子的比较敏感的项目活动。第四,以“海洋模块钻机建造项目”为例,分析活动重叠对进度绩效的影响,估计迭代的项目完工期和模拟项目活动进度状态,验证上述研究的有效性,为项目完工提出了作者的建议。
[Abstract]:In the fierce competition and high penalty in the market economy, the completion of the project period is very important. Chinese since 30 years of reform and opening up, economic construction has been rapid development, large and complex projects followed, such as the world's largest land reclamation project of Shanghai Lingang New City, a total investment of 25 billion yuan project, the world's longest high-speed railway project of Beijing Shanghai high speed the railway project, a total investment of 220 billion yuan. A project plan in the period of completion and delivery is one of the core issues of most concern to investors, but also the project management is the main content of a, is no exception for large and complex projects. The complex project has a high degree of uncertainty, the uncertainty of high coupling in project activities the current project activities overlap, a large amount of information iteration, long implementation cycle and possible uncertainty etc. Duoci rework in project activities The qualitative under the influence of complex projects often can not be completed in the plan period and planned cost. Therefore, the completion of the project based on the study period, the project cost and quality, as well as schedule performance. In order to control the influence of project uncertainty on the progress of the project, from project activities and activities overlap, rework activities iteration, to study their impact on the schedule performance. Therefore, this thesis, from four aspects: first, in the early and complete information based on the information, analyzes the implementation of overlapping activities, and then using the method of design structure matrix description and analysis of the activities of overlapping rework, influence the completion of the project time and quality loss; in order to play the positive activity overlapping benefits, construction activities in the perspective of the cost of overlapping comprehensive benefit model. Second, in order to analyze the activities of project completion iteration The effect in sequential iteration, using the method of Markov chain to estimate the coupled task completion. Third, in order to reflect the project progress status, using system dynamics simulation simulation project progress status, analysis of the output time factor and input time factor to the project completion stage effects, which identify the completion of the project the time period of relatively large fluctuations in the factor and the time factor is more sensitive to the activities of the project. In fourth, the "ocean module drilling rig construction project" as an example, analysis of activity overlapping on schedule performance impact, the completion of the project period of iterative estimation and simulation project progress status, verify the validity of the research, for the completion of the project the suggestions put forward by the author.

【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU722

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