烟台市所城里历史街区改造项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-29 17:06

本文选题：历史街区改造　切入点：财务风险　出处：《中国海洋大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：历史街区及其建筑是城市发展的印记,是一定时期社会风俗和生活方式的缩影,其深厚的文化底蕴构成了城市个性面貌的活力源泉。近年来,随着我国经济的不断发展,人文水平的不断提升,社会对历史建筑的重视程度不断加深。越来越多的城市更多的人们认识到一座城市的历史街区是一座城市的历史遗产和精神财富,国内各大城市的历史街区保护、改造、开发工程也方兴未艾。但是,很多城市在历史街区大兴土木的同时,也出现了很多问题,历史街区改造项目也遇到诸多风险。规划合理、施工推进有序的历史街区改造,可以使该历史街区成为城市文化底蕴的展示窗口,成为城市发展变化的动力源泉,而建设不当的历史街区建设项目,不仅会使历史街区失去原有的活力,有的甚至还会造成了无法挽回的损失。笔者结合烟台市已经开工的所城里街区改造项目,对历史街区改造项目风险管理问题进行研究。本文以项目风险管理系统理论为依据,主要采用了案例分析法、问卷调查法、层次分析法、模糊综合评价法等几种研究方法,对烟台市所城里历史街区项目的改造开发过程中可能出现的风险,进行规划、识别、评估以及提出相应控制对策。风险规划环节主要采用案例分析法,分析出项目风险的主要来源,风险来源来自于项目建设前、项目建设中及项目建设后,由于项目已经开工,着重分析项目中可能存在的风险项。通过建立指标体系,运用层次分析法确定项目的主要风险有财务风险、施工风险,其后又对几个主要风险项目下包含的具体的项目投资风险、项目融资风险、项目进度风险、项目施工风险等做了着重分析。随后,又通过模糊综合评价法,对风险项权重进行计算,从而确定项目的风险控制等级。最后根据风险等级高低不同、侧重点不同,提出风险控制的不同策略,并从四个方面论述了笔者对项目风险控制的建议。本文通过对所城里项目风险的识别、评估及分析,通过计算该项目风险评价模型,得出该项目确实存在一定风险,对财务风险、施工风险等主要风险项,提出了回避、转移、减轻、回避等应对风险的办法。本文的创新之处在于将历史街区改造理论与项目风险管理理论相结合,笔者希望通过本文的写作,总结出一套适用于我国历史街区改造特点的理论体系,通过对所城里项目各项风险值的分析期望达到降低该项目的风险水平,提高社会资源合理利用率的效果。同时希望本文通过对该项目的分析,构建一个比较完善的历史街区改造项目风险管理体系,就历史街区改造项目风险管理课题,提出了一些思考与建议,为其他类似项目的决策提供科学有效的方法与借鉴。
[Abstract]:City Historic District and the building is the mark of development, is the epitome of a certain period of social customs and way of life, its rich cultural heritage constitutes a source of vitality of city individuality appearance. In recent years, with the continuous development of China's economy, the continuous improvement of the level of human society, increasing emphasis on people of historic buildings. More and more city more aware of the city's historic district is a historical heritage and spiritual wealth of a city, historic district protection, the domestic each big city transformation, the development of engineering is just unfolding. However, many city historic district, be busy at putting up installations at the same time, there are also many problems, historical district renovation project also met a lot of risk. Reasonable planning, construction to promote the renovation of historical blocks and orderly, can make the historic district to become a cultural city of the display window, become a city development The power source of the construction, and improper historic district construction projects, will not only lose the vitality of the original Historic District, and some may even cause irreparable damage. With the combination of the City District of Yantai city reconstruction project has already started the research on urban redevelopment project risk management based on the theory of project risk. Management system as the basis, mainly adopts case analysis method, questionnaire survey method, AHP, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and other research methods, the Yantai City City Historic District project transformation in the development process of possible risks, planning, identification, evaluation and put forward the corresponding control measures. The planning section mainly uses the risk case analysis, analysis of the main source of project risk, the risk comes from the project construction, project construction and project construction, the project has been The project started, focuses on the analysis of possible risks. Through the establishment of index system, using AHP to determine the main risks of project financial risk, construction risk, then the risk of several major projects include the specific project investment risk, financing risk, project risk, project construction risk etc. emphatically analysis. Then, through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the risk weight is calculated to determine the level of risk control of the project. Finally, according to the level of risk level is different, different, different strategies of risk control, and from the four aspects of the project risk control suggestions through the recognition of the city. Project risk, evaluation and analysis, through the calculation of risk assessment of the project, the project does exist a certain risk, financial risk, construction risk etc. The risk, put forward to avoid, reduce, transfer, avoidance of risk response measures. The innovation of this paper lies in the theory of risk management theory and urban redevelopment project combination, the author hopes that through this writing, summed up a theoretical system for China's historic transformation characteristics, through the analysis of expectations the risk value of the city project to reduce the project risk level, improve the resource utilization rate of the society. I also hope this paper through the analysis of the project, construction of a historic district perfect reconstruction project risk management system, risk management on the subject of historic district renovation project, puts forward some thoughts and suggestions and to provide scientific and effective methods and reference for other similar project decisions.

【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU984.114;TU71

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