隆华公司施工安全事故涌现与险情预警研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 16:57

本文选题：施工安全　切入点：事故涌现　出处：《沈阳建筑大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：建筑行业是我国国民经济的支柱产业之一。对于国民经济的发展和社会主义市场经济的建设都有很重要的作用。但同时建筑行业也是高危,职业病和事故多发的行业。施工安全生产预警在降低施工安全事故中发挥着重要的作用。如何有效地对施工安全事故发出预警是提高施工安全性的关键。本文对于隆华建筑公司已涌现的事故,隐患事故等多方面进行深入分析。总结影响施工安全的因素,包括人的不安全行为、物的不安全状态、环境的不安全条件和管理存在的缺陷四个方面的因素。采用模糊综合评判的方法,对于隆华建筑公司的施工安全进行静态的综合预警评判。构建了建筑生产事故预警指标体系,给出了定性指标的量化方法；基于模糊互补判断矩阵确定指标权重,进行了一致性检验。最后得到隆华建筑公司的静态预警结果并进行验证分析。采用系统动力学的理论和建模的方法,在分析影响隆华建筑公司施工安全要素的结构层次的基础上,使用鱼刺骨的形式表达安全要素结构层次。分析施工涌现的典型模式,并描述隆华建筑公司的涌现模式。绘制人的安全行为子系统因果流程图,物的安全状态子系统因果流程图,环境的安全状态子系统因果流程图,管理的安全状态子系统因果流程图和施工安全状态总系统因果流程图。使用SPSS软件对于流程图中表现的具有因果关系的因素数据进行拟合处理和一致性检验。建立相应的施工安全系统仿真模型,包括人的安全行为子系统模型,物的安全状态子系统模型,环境的安全状态子系统模型,管理的安全状态子系统模型和施工安全状态总系统模型。运行系统动力学仿真软件Vensim-PLE,通过仿真子系统和总体系统的安全水平,对于隆华建筑公司的施工安全进行动态的综合预警评判。并在不同情境下运行施工安全事故涌现的动态预警仿真实验。基于动力学的预警评判方法与静态的模糊综合评判预警进行比较。对于隆华建筑公司的施工安全评判,评判结果差异较小。但是基于动力学的预警评判方法具有明显优势,体现了施工生产安全的涌现机理,能够动态的体现安全要素之间的关系。并且能够有效预测事故未来的发展趋势,有助于施工安全事故防范长效机制的建立。
[Abstract]:The construction industry is one of the pillar industries of our national economy. It has a very important role in the construction of the development of the national economy and the socialist market economy. But at the same time, the construction industry is a high-risk occupation, disease and accident prone industry. Construction safety warning in reducing construction safety plays an important role in the whole accident. How to effectively on the construction safety accident early warning is the key to improve the safety of construction. The Longhua construction company has been the emergence of accidents, accidents and other aspects of in-depth analysis. Summarize the influential factors of construction safety, including the people's unsafe behavior, unsafe condition of things, the four aspects of defects does not exist safety conditions and management environment. By using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, comprehensive evaluation for construction safety warning static Longhua construction company. Construction of the building production. The early warning index system, gives a method to quantify the qualitative index; fuzzy complementary judgment matrix to determine the index weight based on the consistency test. The static warning Longhua construction company and to verify the analysis results. Using the theory and method of system dynamics modeling, based on the analysis of the structure of Longhua construction company the security factor on the expression of the use of fish bone form structure. Safety factors of typical models of construction emerged, and describe the Longhua construction company. The emergence of pattern drawing sub human safety behavior system causal flow diagram, object state subsystem causal flow chart, environmental security subsystem causality flow chart diagram, state subsystem causal flow chart and the construction safety management system. The total causal state using SPSS software for performance due to the flow chart The relationship between fruit factor data are fitted and the consistency test. The establishment of construction safety system simulation model, system model including human safety behavior, safety subsystem model, security subsystem model, security subsystem model and construction safety management system. The overall state of operation system dynamics simulation software Vensim-PLE, through the security level simulation subsystem and the overall system, comprehensive evaluation for construction safety warning dynamic Longhua construction company. Construction and operation of an early warning dynamic simulation experiment for accidents emerge in different situations. Compared with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and early warning of static evaluation method based on the kinetics of early warning for construction safety evaluation of Longhua construction company, the evaluation results were smaller. But the early warning evaluation method based on dynamics has obvious The advantage, reflects the emergence mechanism of construction production safety, can reflect the relationship between the dynamic safety factors. And the future development trend of effective accident prediction, helps to establish construction safety accident prevention mechanism.

【学位授予单位】：沈阳建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU714

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