基于系统动力学的老年住宅需求仿真研究

发布时间：2018-04-10 02:10

本文选题：老年住宅　切入点：老年住宅需求　出处：《西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版)》2016年05期

【摘要】：首先从供给和需求的角度分析了老年住宅市场的发展概况,将老年住宅市场分为六个子系统,并对各个系统进行分析;其次,运用系统动力学原理及方法,根据老年住宅市场系统内部影响机理,建立系统反馈回路;通过变量间的关系梳理及方程设定,从而构建城市老年住宅系统动力学仿真模型;根据西安市年鉴及国土资源与房屋管理局等统计数据分析,通过方程构建和参数选取,应用系统动力学软件Vensim PLE进行系统模拟与仿真,以西安市2011年至2015年的老年住宅市场的数据作为模型的基础数据,仿真近五年西安市老年住宅市场发展现状,并预测西安市住宅市场未来5年发展走势;最后根据仿真结果,针对政府和企业分别提出了因应对策,以期为政府、业界决策提供参考.
[Abstract]:Firstly, this paper analyzes the development of the elderly housing market from the point of view of supply and demand, divides the elderly housing market into six subsystems, and analyzes each system; secondly, using the principle and method of system dynamics,According to the internal influence mechanism of the aged housing market system, the feedback loop of the system is established, and the dynamic simulation model of the urban elderly housing system is constructed by combing the relationship among variables and setting up the equation.According to Xi'an yearbook and statistics data of land, resources and housing administration, through equation construction and parameter selection, the system simulation and simulation are carried out by using system dynamics software Vensim PLE.Taking the data from 2011 to 2015 as the basic data, the paper simulates the current situation of the elderly housing market in Xi'an in the past five years, and forecasts the development trend of the housing market in Xi'an in the next five years, finally, according to the simulation results,In order to provide reference for government and industry decision-making, the corresponding countermeasures are put forward for government and enterprise respectively.
【作者单位】：西安建筑科技大学管理学院;
【基金】：陕西省教育厅专项科研计划基金资助项目(14JK1376) 住房和城乡建设部基金资助项目(R42015026) 西安建筑科技大学重点学科建设基金资助项目(XK201227)
【分类号】：TU241.93

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