“德州太阳谷写字楼”建设项目投资风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-08-16 14:14

【摘要】：目前,建筑行业的高能耗、高污染、高风险等问题已成为制约我国经济可持续发展的瓶颈。如何对项目进行风险管理,降低潜在风险,获得最大效益,日益引起人们的重视。我国的风险管理尚处于初级阶段,风险评价的测度及定量分析技术方法研究匮乏,以此为基础的工程项目的风险管理有待进一步完善。本文基于现有研究,从风险识别、预测根据、预测准确度评价、风险因素的可控性措施等方面进一步做了相关探究。本文在总结国内外项目投资风险管理的基础上,以“德州太阳谷”建设项目工程为研究对象,综合运用文献综合分析法、国内及国外对比研究、调查访问、借鉴规范理论四种研究方法,对该项目在投资建设过程中的风险管理进行了研究。主要研究内容如下：首先,建立风险管理体系。结合德州太阳谷建设项目投资风险的种类多、影响范围广、变化大等特点,建立德州太阳谷建设基于项目管理目标和组织的风险管理体系。其次,项目风险识别。德州太阳谷投资风险管理部门结合工程特点和实际情况,主要采取专家调查法来分析项目在整个过程中所面临的风险,从施工建设阶段及后期运营阶段分析风险的主要来源。第三,项目风险评价。通过得出的项目管理风险主要因素,本文利用定性及定量分析方法,包括专家调查法及模糊综合评价法等对项目投资风险进行评价,建立风险评价体系,以确定项目整体风险水平,并确定项目关键风险因素。第四,提出有效的风险防范措施。通过对项目进行综合分析和评估后,得出项目风险的关键因素,根据风险控制的一般措施,结合该项目的特点及实际,提出更具针对性的应对策略。通过对德州太阳谷建设项目进行全面分析和研究,可以得出：该项目主要存在技术风险、管理风险、资金风险、材料风险以及设计风险这五种投资风险,其中设计风险、技术风险以及资金风险是影响该项目顺利进行的关键因素,而管理风险和材料风险对该项目影响比较小。该项目要根据项目特点及施工进度,从主要影响因素方面提出相应的应对策略。
[Abstract]:At present, the problems of high energy consumption, high pollution and high risk in the construction industry have become the bottleneck restricting the sustainable development of our economy. How to manage the risk of the project, reduce the potential risk and obtain the maximum benefit has attracted more and more attention. The risk management in our country is still in the primary stage, and the research on the measurement and quantitative analysis of risk assessment is scarce, and the risk management of engineering projects based on it needs to be further improved. Based on the existing research, this paper makes further research on risk identification, prediction basis, prediction accuracy evaluation and controllable measures of risk factors. On the basis of summarizing the risk management of project investment at home and abroad, this paper takes the "Dezhou Sun Valley" construction project as the research object, synthetically uses the literature comprehensive analysis method, the domestic and the foreign contrast research, the investigation visit, This paper studies the risk management of the project in the process of investment and construction by referring to four research methods of normative theory. The main research contents are as follows: first, establish risk management system. According to the characteristics of Dezhou Sun Valley Construction Project, such as the variety of investment risk, the wide range of influence and the great change, the risk management system based on project management objectives and organization is established. Secondly, project risk identification. The risk management department of Taiyang Valley investment in Texas combines the characteristics of the project and the actual situation, mainly adopts the method of expert investigation to analyze the risk in the whole process of the project, and analyzes the main source of the risk from the construction stage and the later stage of operation. Third, project risk evaluation. Through the main factors of project management risk, this paper uses qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, including expert investigation method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, to evaluate project investment risk and establish risk evaluation system. To determine the overall risk level of the project and determine key risk factors for the project. Fourth, put forward effective risk prevention measures. Through the comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the project, the key factors of the project risk are obtained. According to the general measures of risk control, combined with the characteristics and practice of the project, more targeted countermeasures are put forward. Through the comprehensive analysis and research on the Taizhou Sun Valley construction project, it can be concluded that there are five kinds of investment risks, including technical risk, management risk, capital risk, material risk and design risk, among which the design risk. The technical risk and the financial risk are the key factors to affect the project, while the management risk and the material risk have little impact on the project. According to the characteristics of the project and the construction schedule, the corresponding countermeasures should be put forward from the main influencing factors.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU71

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