基于集对分析的在建工程火灾风险评价研究

发布时间：2019-01-06 07:14

【摘要】：随着我国城镇建设力度不断的加大,在建工程项目的数量将会持续攀升,加之高层建筑、地下建筑、巨型建筑的层出不穷,在建工程的火灾风险程度会随之增大,造成极大的人员伤亡和财产损失,因此对在建工程项目进行火灾风险评估非常必要。通过对在建工程项目火灾风险评价,可以系统地识别出火灾的风险因素;揭示各种风险因素及施工场地整体的火灾风险程度,为施工管理者制定消防安全措施提供决策依据,以便降低火灾事故发生的概率和造成的损失,同时可以提高施工企业提高消防安全管理水平;也可为工程建设保险行业制定科学合理的火灾保险费率提供支持。为了达到研究目的,本文所做的主要工作概括如下:(1)在以对在建工程火灾案例的研究及结合施工场地环境的基础上,具体分析了在建工程火灾发生的原因,从在建工程项目的自身状况和施工消防安全管理两方面总结了其火灾所具有的特点。(2)依据对在建工程火灾原因及特点的分析,初步建立起在建工程火灾风险评价指标体系,进一步对指标必要性分析、重要度分析、完整性分析和对指标体系结构“深度”与“出度”、聚类情况分析,最终建立起一套适合在建工程的火灾风险评价体系,涉及到火源控制、防火能力、灭火能力、安全疏散、消防安全管理、人员因素六大项内容,并对其下的各个子指标进行了解释和评价内容的界定。(3)分析总结了层次分析法在赋权应用上的缺陷和不足以及对其各种的改进。提出了基于SPA-IAHP的赋权方法,该方法的优点在于指标间的相对重要程度以区间数的形式给出,克服了专家需要对相对重要程度做出精准判断的缺陷,避免了一致性检验,并运用集对分析思想将区间数形式的权重转化为精确值。(4)依托集对分析理论,建立了基于n元联系数的系统风险评价模型。通过对风险等级的判定以及对集对态势和偏联系数的分析,可以综合评判出系统风险程度及发展趋势。
[Abstract]:With the increasing intensity of urban construction in our country, the number of projects under construction will continue to climb. In addition, with the emergence of high-rise buildings, underground buildings and giant buildings, the degree of fire risk of ongoing construction projects will increase. It is necessary to evaluate the fire risk of projects under construction because of the great casualties and property losses. By evaluating the fire risk of the project under construction, the fire risk factors can be identified systematically. It reveals all kinds of risk factors and the fire risk degree of the construction site as a whole, and provides decision basis for the construction manager to formulate fire safety measures in order to reduce the probability of fire accident and the loss caused by the fire accident. At the same time, the construction enterprises can improve the level of fire safety management; It can also provide support for engineering construction insurance industry to establish scientific and reasonable fire insurance rate. In order to achieve the purpose of the research, the main works of this paper are summarized as follows: (1) based on the study of the fire cases in the construction project and the environment of the construction site, the causes of the fire in the construction project are analyzed concretely. This paper summarizes the fire characteristics of the construction project from the aspects of its own condition and construction fire safety management. (2) based on the analysis of the causes and characteristics of the fire in the construction project, Establishing the fire risk evaluation index system of the construction project in progress, further analyzing the necessity of the index, the importance analysis, the integrality analysis, the analysis of the index system structure "depth" and "exit degree", and the cluster analysis. Finally, a set of fire risk assessment systems suitable for ongoing construction projects were established, involving six major elements: fire source control, fire prevention capability, fire extinguishing capability, safety evacuation, fire safety management, and personnel factors. At the same time, each sub-index is explained and evaluated. (3) the defects and shortcomings of AHP in the application of weighting and its improvement are analyzed and summarized. A weighting method based on SPA-IAHP is proposed. The advantage of this method is that the relative importance of the index is given in the form of interval number, which overcomes the defect that experts need to make accurate judgment on the relative importance, and avoids the consistency test. Using the idea of set pair analysis, the weight of interval number form is transformed into accurate value. (4) based on set pair analysis theory, the system risk evaluation model based on n-ary connection number is established. By judging the risk level and analyzing the set pair situation and partial relation number, we can comprehensively judge the degree of risk and the development trend of the system.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU998.1

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