曲阜绿城住宅工程项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2017-12-26 17:10

本文关键词：曲阜绿城住宅工程项目风险管理研究　出处：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2010年以来国家出台了一系列政策措施调控房地产行业,包括“国十一条”、“新国八条”、提高二套房首付比例达50%、暂停家庭购买三套房房贷、开征房产税等,同时连续3次加息、6次上调存款准备金率,新出台政策抑制了房地产市场发展过热的势头,房地产项目的开发有所降温,给住宅房地产项目的开发带来了更多不确定因素。众所周知,房地产开发项目投资数额大、投资周期长、运营操作复杂更是高风险行业的典型。房地产项目开发中要面临经济、社会、自然、技术、管理各类风险,众多的风险因素决定了投资效益的不确定性。因此,加强风险管理是保证房地产开发项目顺利实施的不可或缺的组成部分。本文主要采用理论与实践相结合的研究方法,对住宅工程项目中的风险因素、风险识别、风险的评价进行了研究和探讨。并对曲阜绿城一期住宅工程项目进行了实证研究。主要的研究方法有：文献查阅法,数据收集方法贯穿整个论文的研究与写作过程：实地调查法即对该项目的投资建设相关部门进行实地调研,收集第一手资料：系统分析方法,在收集数据的基础上,利用系统分析方法中的层次分析法和模糊综合评价法,分别建立了项目风险因素排序模型和风险模糊分析模型,具有一定的科学性：定性与定量相结合的方法,针对曲阜绿城一期住宅工程项目具体实例,利用项目风险管理的方法对其进行定性的风险识别与分类,利用所建模型对其进行定量的实证应用与分析,具有一定的现实意义。本文在对房地产项目风险管理理论进行梳理的基础上,以曲阜绿城住宅工程项目为研究对象,提出了一套切实可行的房地产项目风险管理措施。包括：(1)对风险、风险管理、风险管理方法进行梳理总结；(2)对曲阜绿城住宅工程项目进行全面分析,并应用德尔菲法识别主要项目风险：经营风险、政治风险、经济风险、自然风险和技术风险。(3)运用AHP模糊综合评价法对曲阜绿城住宅工程项目的开发风险进行综合评价,得出该项目的综合风险处于一般水平。(4)根据曲阜绿城住宅工程项目的风险评价结果,有针对性的提出项目风险应对措旅,将风险降到最低水平,确保绿城住宅工程项目的顺利实施。本文以曲阜绿城一期住宅工程项目为实例,运用层次分析评价法和模糊综合评价法,论证曲阜绿城一期住宅工程项目面临的风险因素,试图得出适当的风险控制对策。从微观层面讲,加强对房地产项目风险评估的研究有利于完善房地产企业的风险管理体系,确保项目顺利实施,提高经营效益、获得利润。从宏观层面讲,加强房地产项目风险评估,提高房地产项目风险管理水平,是成熟市场经济的必然要求,一切按照市场规律办事,有利于房地产行业的健康可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Since 2010 the state issued a series of policies and measures to control the real estate industry, including the "country of eleven", "Eight Control Regulations on House Prices" and improve the two suites down payment of 50%, suspended families to buy three suites mortgage, property tax levy, and the 3 consecutive increase in interest rates, raising the deposit reserve ratio 6 times, the introduction of new policies to restrain the the development of the overheated real estate market momentum, the development of real estate projects has been down to the development of the residential real estate project brings more uncertainty. As we all know, real estate development project investment amount, long investment cycle, operation complex is more typical of high risk industry. In the development of real estate projects, we should face the risks of economy, society, nature, technology and management. Many risk factors determine the uncertainty of investment benefit. Therefore, strengthening the risk management is an indispensable part of ensuring the smooth implementation of the real estate development project. This paper mainly studies the risk factors, risk identification and risk evaluation of housing projects by combining theory with practice. The paper also carried out an empirical study on the first phase of the residential project in Lvcheng in Qufu. The main research methods are: literature review, research and writing method of collecting data through this paper: field investigation method of on-the-spot investigation of the relevant departments to invest in the construction of the project, to collect first-hand information: system analysis method, based on data collection, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and AHP method the analysis by using the system, established the fuzzy analysis model of project risk factors ranking model and risk, have certain science: the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, aiming at a residential project in Qufu Greentown project example, risk identification and qualitative classification based on the method of project risk management, application and demonstration using the model of quantitative analysis on it, has a certain practical significance. Based on the theory of risk management of real estate projects, this paper takes Qufu green city residential project as the research object, and puts forward a set of feasible risk management measures for real estate projects. Including: (1) the risk, risk management, risk management methods were summarized; (2) to conduct a comprehensive analysis of Qufu Greentown residential projects, and the application of the Delphi method identify the main project risk: business risk, political risk, economic risk, natural risk and technical risk. (3) using AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to comprehensively evaluate the development risk of Qufu Lvcheng residential project, and draw the conclusion that the comprehensive risk of the project is at a general level. (4) according to the risk assessment results of Qufu Greentown residential project, the project risk response brigade is put forward to minimize the risk and ensure the smooth implementation of the Greentown housing project. Taking the first phase residential project of Qufu green city as an example, this paper uses AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to demonstrate the risk factors faced by the first phase residential project in Qufu, and try to draw some appropriate risk control measures. From a micro perspective, strengthening the research on risk assessment of real estate projects is conducive to improving the risk management system of real estate enterprises, ensuring the smooth implementation of projects, improving business profits and gaining profits. From a macro perspective, strengthening the risk assessment of real estate projects and improving the level of risk management of real estate projects is the inevitable requirement of a mature market economy. Everything in accordance with the laws of the market is conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate industry.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU71;F299.23

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