工业化、城镇化进程中电力需求分析及预测

发布时间：2017-12-27 12:22

本文关键词：工业化、城镇化进程中电力需求分析及预测　出处：《运筹与管理》2015年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着工业化、城镇化进程的不断加快,我国电力需求量将持续上升。电力的充足供应是我国经济稳步发展的重要保证,故合理准确的对电力需求进行分析及预测具有重要的现实意义。基于此,分析我国电力需求现状,利用通径分析筛选电力消费需求的核心驱动因素。在模型选择的基础上,基于单变量(ETS、ARIMA模型)和多变量(情景分析)两个维度进行电力需求量分析及预测。结果表明:GDP每提高1%使得电力需求量提高0.5249%;工业化水平每提高1%使得电力需求量提高2.2146%,城镇化水平每提高1%使电力需求量相应提高1.0076%。"十二五"末中国电力消费需求量将近61425.96KW/h,2020年中国电力消费需求将近81410.10KW/h。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, the demand for electricity in China will continue to rise. The sufficient supply of electricity is an important guarantee for the steady development of China's economy, so it is of great practical significance to analyze and predict the electricity demand reasonably and accurately. Based on this, the current situation of electricity demand in China is analyzed, and path analysis is used to screen the core driving factors of power consumption demand. On the basis of model selection, the power demand is analyzed and predicted based on two dimensions of single variable (ETS, ARIMA model) and multi variable (scenario analysis). The results show that GDP increases 0.5249% of electricity demand per 1% increase, and the power demand increases by 2.2146% when the level of industrialization increases by 1%, and the urbanization level increases by 1%, so that the electricity demand is increased by 1.0076%. At the end of 12th Five-Year, the demand for electricity consumption in China was nearly 61425.96KW/h, and the demand for electricity consumption in China was nearly 81410.10KW/h in 2020.
【作者单位】：陕西师范大学国际商学院;中国科学院国家数学与交叉科学中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71103115) 中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2012M510580) 陕西省软科学研究计划项目(2012KRM95) 大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201210781026)
【分类号】：F426.61;F224
【正文快照】： 0问题提出随着我国经济的快速发展,工业化、城镇化进程也随之加快。电力行业作为我国国民经济的一项基础产业,是我国经济发展战略中必不可少的支柱型产业。充足的电力生产和供应能够为我国经济稳步发展,人民生活水平的提高以及社会整体的进步提供决定性的条件,同时电力供给不

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