我国新型城镇化的金融支持问题研究：理论与实证

发布时间：2018-01-04 22:01

本文关键词：我国新型城镇化的金融支持问题研究：理论与实证　出处：《华侨大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：新型城镇化建设不仅是推动经济发展转型的关键,同时也是未来几年我国经济发展的重要努力方向。随着新型城镇化的全面推进,其对资金的需求将比传统城镇化更大,单靠传统的政府财政融资方式将无法满足新型城镇化建设的庞大资金需求,因此,越来越有必要发挥金融体系对新型城镇化的支持作用。国内对新型城镇化金融支持的研究更多地局限在新型城镇化与金融支持的定性描述,或将土地财政与金融支持分开来研究它们与新型城镇化的关系及融资对策;而对我国新型城镇化水平的科学度量,金融支持与其他融资方式对新型城镇化的效应比较等深入研究目前较少。因此,本文以此为出发点,从理论与实证分析两个角度,对新型城镇化的金融支持问题进行深入的探讨。在前人研究基础上,结合新型城镇化的科学内涵和研究目的,本文采用熵权法重新构建了新型城镇化指标,分析金融支持新型城镇化的作用机理和渠道以及影响金融支持新型城镇化效应的因素,从而构建金融支持新型城镇化的理论框架,为后续实证分析奠定理论基础和依据。本文采用时空分析方法对我国金融支持和新型城镇化的发展现状与存在问题作了初步分析。结果发现当前我国新型城镇化水平随着时间的推移出现了稳定的增长,但是在空间分布上出现集聚态势,地区之间存在较大差异。而有趣的是,空间探索分析结果发现各省所拥有金融资源的空间分布和新型城镇化、人口城镇化的空间分布存在一定的关联;同时也初步探讨了导致这些问题的其他可能原因。为了深入探讨金融支持对新型城镇化效应,并对比土地财政的新型城镇化效应,本文采用静态与动态面板数据计量经济学模型对金融支持新型城镇化的短期和长期效应进行了实证检验。为了分析的细致,具体从全国、时间、地区等不同角度进行实证分析,并对模型估计结果进行了稳健性检验,最后再对实证结果进行比较分析与解读。静态面板模型估计结果发现,土地财政在短期内对新型城镇化表现出较弱的支持效应,但是存在时间与空间上的结构变化,而且其强度远小于金融支持效率对新型城镇化的影响强度;金融支持规模对新型城镇化的影响是负方向的,金融结构与保险支持对新型城镇化的短期影响均不显著,同时它们对新型城镇化的效应在东、中、西部地区都有较大差异。为了进一步探究金融支持对新型城镇化的长期效应,同时考虑新型城镇化的可持续动态效果,尽力克服可能存在的内生性问题,本文进一步采用动态面板数据模型对其进行实证检验,结果发现,土地财政对新型城镇化的长期效应不再显著,金融支持规模对新型城镇化长期效应仍为负向,但是金融支持效率、金融支持结构、保险支持对新型城镇化长期效应均为正向,并且保险支持通过作用于金融支持规模对新型城镇化起着间接推动作用。因此,随着新型城镇化的发展,为了解决新型城镇化建设“钱从哪儿来”的重大问题,结合理论与实证研究结论,本文认为我国政府应充分借鉴主要发达国家金融支持城镇化经验,具体从构建区域差异化的金融支持策略、提高金融支持效率、金融支持农村城镇化、优化金融支持结构等方面来探索符合我国国情的新型城镇化金融支持策略,最后指出了本文研究的局限及未来展望。
[Abstract]:The construction of the new urbanization is not only the key to promote the transformation of economic development, an important direction of China's economic development is also in the next few years. With the new urbanization advancing, the demand for capital will be greater than the traditional urbanization, rely on the traditional government financing finance will not be able to meet the construction of new urbanization the huge demand for funds, therefore, it is more necessary to play a supporting role in the financial system of the new urbanization. China is described in the new urbanization and financial support for the more limited qualitative study of new financial support for urbanization, or separate land finance and financial support to study their relationship with the new urbanization and Financing Countermeasures of; China's new urbanization level scientific measurement, financial support and other means of financing of new urbanization effect comparison research is less. Therefore, this This paper as a starting point, analysis from two aspects of theory and practice, in-depth discussion on the financial support of the new urbanization. On the basis of previous studies, combined with the new urbanization and the scientific connotation of the purpose of the study, this paper uses entropy method to construct the new urbanization index, analysis of the financial support of the new urbanization the mechanism and channels as well as the influence of the financial support of the new urbanization effect factors, and constructs a theoretical framework for the financial support of the new urbanization, and provides a theoretical foundation and basis for the subsequent empirical. A preliminary analysis and present development situation of the spatial analysis method of China's financial support and new urbanization problems. Found that the current China's new urbanization level with the passage of time has seen steady growth, but the spatial distribution of concentration trend, there is a big area between Differences. Interestingly, space exploration results show that the spatial distribution of the provinces have the financial resources and new urbanization, population urbanization spatial distribution has certain relevance; at the same time also discussed other possible causes of these problems. In order to discuss the financial support of the new urbanization and new urbanization effect. Compared the effects of land finance, this paper uses static and dynamic panel data econometric model to test the short-term and long-term effect of the financial support of the new urbanization. In order to analyze the specific details, from the time, the empirical analysis of different angle region, and the model estimation results of the robustness test, and finally the empirical results of comparative analysis and interpretation. The static panel model estimation results show that the land finance in the short term of the new urbanization showed weaker The support effect, but there are structural changes in time and space, and its strength is far less than the impact on the efficiency of financial support for the new urbanization strength; influence of financial support on the scale of new urbanization is the negative direction, financial structure and insurance to support the short-term impact of the new urbanization were not significant, while they are on the new the effect of urbanization in the East, there are differences in the western region. In order to further explore the effect of long-term financial support of the new urbanization, considering the dynamic effect of sustainable new urbanization, try to overcome the endogeneity problem may exist, this paper further uses dynamic panel data model for the empirical test, the results found. The long-term effects of Land Finance on new urbanization is not significant, the financial support of the new urbanization scale long-term effect is still negative, but the financial efficiency of financial support. Support structure, support for the new urbanization insurance long-term effects are positive, and insurance support by acting on the financial support of the new urbanization scale plays an indirect role. Therefore, with the development of the new urbanization, new urbanization "in order to solve the major problems which come from money", combining the theory and conclusion the empirical research, this paper argues that our government should make full use of the major developed countries financial support to urbanization experience, from the specific financial support strategies to build regional differences, improve the efficiency of financial support, financial support for rural urbanization, optimizing the structure of financial support to explore in line with China's national conditions of the new urbanization financial support strategies, finally pointed out research limitations and future prospects.

【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.21;F832.4

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