FDI、金融结构和我国经济增长基于动态面板与VAR的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 00:29

本文关键词：FDI、金融结构和我国经济增长基于动态面板与VAR的实证研究　出处：《云南师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“如何促进经济增长”这个问题长期以来都是全世界经济学者孜孜不倦的研究对象。而金融作为经济系统的核心，必然成为学者们关注的焦点。本文首先通过对国内外相关理论的研习，就金融结构、外商直接投资与经济增长之间的作用机制进行了详细的分析，认为经济，金融市场，外资的流入存在联动机制。在实证分析方面，作者以新古典增长理论和内生经济增长理论为基础，通过对柯布道格拉斯函数的数学扩展，并利用我国1992-2011年长达20年的省级面板数据，依次构建了符合我国国情的固定效应模型、面板VAR模型和动态面板数据模型。固定效应模型中，，除了金融总量指标，其他各解释变量和控制变量的系数都至少在5%的显著水平下显著。其中，外商直接投资、金融效率的系数分别为0.0165和0.0222。面板VAR模型则考察了经济增长指标、金融结构指标和外商直接投资指标的滞后期的影响，估计结果在一定程度上证实了三者存在互动关系的假设。动态面板数据模型估计结果显示，经济增长指标的滞后一期系数显著，高达0.2213。FDI当期、滞后一期和二期的系数分别为0.0197、0.0140和0.0116，表明FDI指标对我国经济增长在短期和中长期均有明显的正向作用。金融总量指标当期系数在5%的显著水平下显著，系数达到了0.0305。而金融效率指标的作用比较复杂，滞后一期和二期均在1%显著水平下显著，系数分别为0.1997和-0.1533。综合各计量模型的研究结果可以发现，在消费，投资，财政，出口，技术进步等条件给定的情况下，FDI增加和金融市场的优化均能在一定程度上刺激我国GDP的增长。而代表过去经济情况的GDP滞后变量也与当期经济有显著的相关性，表明我国经济发展存在一种惯性作用。最后，本文根据理论和实证研究所得出的结论，对提高金融市场效率，优化金融市场资源配置，合理利用外资等方面提出了相应的建议。
[Abstract]:"How to promote economic growth" this issue has long been the research object of the world economic and financial scholars diligently. As the core of the economic system, will inevitably become the focus of scholars. Firstly, according to the relevant theory of domestic and foreign study on the financial structure, a detailed analysis of the mechanism between the foreign direct investment with the economic growth that the economy and financial markets, the inflow of foreign capital has linkage mechanism. In the empirical analysis, the author takes new classical growth theory and endogenous growth theory as the foundation, through to the O'Brien Glass function expansion and the use of mathematics, the provincial panel data during 1992-2011 in China for 20 years, followed by building a the fixed effect model conforming to China's national conditions, the panel VAR model and dynamic panel data model. The fixed effect model, in addition to the financial indicators, the other explanation The coefficient and the control variables are at least 5% significant level significantly. Among them, foreign direct investment, financial efficiency coefficient were 0.0165 and 0.0222. panel VAR model examines the economic growth indicators, the impact of financial structure index and FDI index lag, the estimation results to some extent confirms the existence of the interaction between the three assumptions. The dynamic panel data model. The results showed that economic growth index of one period lag coefficient is significant, up to 0.2213.FDI current, the lag phase and the two phase of the coefficient were 0.0197,0.0140 and 0.0116, FDI index showed a positive effect on China's economic growth in the short-term and long-term financial significantly. The total index of current coefficient is significant at the 5% significance level, the coefficient reached 0.0305. and the financial efficiency index function is more complex, the lag period and the two period are 1% significant water Flat significantly, coefficient of respectively 0.1997 and -0.1533. of each model can be found in consumption, investment, finance, export, technological progress and other conditions are given, the optimization of FDI increased and the financial market can stimulate the growth of the GDP in China to a certain extent. But represents the past economic situation GDP lag variables have significant correlation with the current economy, indicates that there is an inertia effect of China's economic development. Finally, according to the theory and the conclusions of empirical research, to improve the efficiency of financial market, optimize the financial allocation of market resources, and puts forward the corresponding suggestions on rational use of foreign capital and so on.

【学位授予单位】：云南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F832.6;F124.1

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