基于系统动力学的宏观调控对房地产价格影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 09:03

本文关键词：基于系统动力学的宏观调控对房地产价格影响研究　出处：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：现阶段,我国房地产市场呈现出畸形发展的态势,房地产价格严重偏离其实际价值,为引导房地产价格的合理回归,我国政府适时地采取了税收政策、货币政策及土地政策等一系列房地产宏观调控政策,并取得了一定的成效。但就各项政策的作用效果和影响程度,国内外学者说法不一。因此,各项宏观调控政策如何作用房地产价格、作用效果如何等成为当前的研究焦点。本文的房地产宏观调控政策主要界定为税收政策、货币政策、土地政策这三方面内容,文章采用系统动力学方法,通过构建宏观调控对房地产价格影响的系统动力学模型,系统地分析各项政策对房地产价格影响的作用途径,并借助政策调控实验,深入探讨各项调控政策对房地产价格的作用效果和影响程度,进而提出对现有政策的改进建议。具体内容分为七章,其中,第一、二章为基础章节,介绍研究背景、目的意义以及相关的理论概述；第三章在按照我国房地产宏观调控的阶段性特征,分三个阶段整体地回顾我国房地产宏观调控的政策采用情况以及作用效果的基础上,系统分析宏观调控政策对房地产价格影响的传导机制；第四、五、六章为本文的核心章节,在运用系统动力学方法绘制因果回路图和系统存量流量图的基础上,完成系统动力学模型的构建,并借助大量的统计数据进行系统模型的仿真测试和调控实验,定量分析各项调控政策对房地产价格的影响程度,在分析调控实验结果的基础上,对我国房地产调控政策提出改进建议；第七章为结语,在对全文的研究成果概括总结的基础上,指出研究中存在的不足及对未来的展望。
[Abstract]:At present, China's real estate market is a lopsided development trend, real estate prices deviate from the actual value for guiding rational regression of real estate prices, the Chinese government timely adopted tax policy, monetary policy and land policy and a series of real estate macro-control policies, and achieved certain results. But the effect of policies and the impact of domestic and foreign scholars vary. Therefore, the macro-control policy to real estate price, the effect to become the focus of research at present.
In this paper, the real estate macro-control policies mainly defined as tax policy, monetary policy, land policy of the three aspects, the article adopts the method of system dynamics, the system dynamics model of construction of macro-control on real estate prices, mechanism of systematic analysis of the impact of policies on real estate prices, and with the policy experiment, in-depth to explore the effect and influence of the regulation and control policies on the real estate prices, and then puts forward suggestions for improvement of the existing policy. The content is divided into seven chapters, the first, second chapter is based on chapter, introduces the research background, purpose and significance as well as the related theory; in the third chapter, according to the characteristics of China's real estate macro-control the base is divided into three stages, the overall review of China's real estate macro-control policies and the effect on the analysis of macro adjustment system The transmission mechanism of influence of control policy on real estate prices; fourth, fifth, the six chapter is the core chapter, on the basis of using the method of system dynamics drawing causal loop diagram and stock flow system, constructed the system dynamics model, and using the statistics simulation test and experiment control system model, quantitative analysis of the influence of regulatory policy on real estate prices, based on the analysis of the regulation on the experimental results, this paper puts forward some suggestions on China's real estate regulation policy; the seventh chapter is the conclusion, summarizes the research results in this paper on the basis of summing up, pointed out the shortcomings of the study and the outlook for the future.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;N941.3

【参考文献】