昆明国际陆港物流绩效评价及动力学仿真研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 04:22

本文关键词：昆明国际陆港物流绩效评价及动力学仿真研究　出处：《昆明理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着城市经济外向型的大力推进,内陆地区国际贸易市场竞争不断加剧,国际陆港的建设和发展,不仅能促进内陆区域外向型经济加速发展,还能改善物流基础设施建设,提高物流效率和降低物流成本,有效地增加物流供给能力,满足区域城市交通运输网络和国际物流发展的需求。然而,国际陆港的建设和发展已呈现出些许弊端,大量土地资源和资金的投入致使盲目建设,缺少行业标准化体系致使国际陆港的物流作业紊乱,物流效率低于规划目标,同时,国际陆港与城市的相互关系比较模糊,缺乏整体性和系统性联系。因此,如何构建和完善国际陆港物流绩效评价指标体系己成为国际陆港提高物流效率,实现快速发展急需解决的问题,同时,如何正确和全面认识国际陆港与城市的系统内在联系,对于指导陆港—城市协同建设发展,推动城市物流产业发展和促进区域国际贸易经济的发展具有不言而喻的战略意义。本文首先阐述国际陆港理论部分,对其概念、分类等进行改善和补充,同时对其功能以及形成模式进行初步探讨；分析了国内外国际陆港的建设与发展现状,给出其发展制约因素；基于演化博弈理论,提出国际陆港演化博弈模型,探讨国际陆港的演化发展方向。在综合归纳物流绩效理论的基础上,明确了国际陆港物流绩效评价基础理论知识。其次,结合一般评价指标建立原则,阐述了基于平衡计分卡理论的指标选取方法,并对其改进,从宏观层面构建国际陆港物流绩效评价指标体系；采用熵值法和灰色关联综合分析法,以5个陆港城市为例,进行综合评价,得出陆港城市物流绩效的排序,分析其绩效结果。最后,基于系统动力学理论,模拟国际陆港—城市复合系统,对系统中的边界条件进行因果关系分析,建立陆港—城市系统动力学流图；同时,以昆明国际陆港为例,使用Vensim PLE软件构建系统动力学模型,应用历史数据进行多次模拟检验,明确了各变量的数学方程式。对昆明市陆港—城市系统进行一般模拟,分析系统现状和未来发展,通过政策模拟,并对比两次模拟结果,对各变量的灵敏度进行分析,同时,结合区域经济环境,提出促进昆明国际陆港发展的对策与建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of export-oriented urban economy, the competition of international trade market in inland areas is becoming more and more intense. The construction and development of international dry ports can not only accelerate the development of export-oriented economy in inland regions. It can also improve the construction of logistics infrastructure, improve logistics efficiency and reduce logistics costs, effectively increase logistics supply capacity, meet the needs of regional urban transport networks and international logistics development. The construction and development of international dry ports have shown some drawbacks, a large number of land resources and capital investment led to blind construction, the lack of industry standardization system led to the international dry ports logistics operations disorder. Logistics efficiency is lower than the planning goal, at the same time, the relationship between international dry ports and cities is vague, lack of integrity and systematic connection. How to construct and improve the performance evaluation index system of international dry port logistics has become an urgent problem to be solved to improve logistics efficiency and realize rapid development of international dry port. How to correctly and comprehensively understand the internal relationship between the international dry port and the city system will guide the development of the dry port-city coordinated construction. It is of strategic significance to promote the development of urban logistics industry and the development of regional international trade economy. In this paper, the theoretical part of the international dry port is first elaborated, its concept, classification and so on are improved and supplemented, at the same time, the function and the formation mode of the dry port are discussed preliminarily. This paper analyzes the present situation of the construction and development of international dry ports at home and abroad, and gives the restrictive factors for its development. Based on the evolutionary game theory, this paper puts forward the evolution game model of international dry ports, and discusses the evolution direction of international dry ports. Defined the international dry port logistics performance evaluation basic theoretical knowledge. Secondly, combined with the general evaluation index establishment principle, elaborated the balanced scorecard theory based on the index selection method, and improved it, from the macro level to build the international dry port logistics performance evaluation index system; Taking five dry port cities as an example, the comprehensive evaluation of logistics performance of dry port cities is carried out by using entropy method and grey relational comprehensive analysis method. The ranking of logistics performance of dry port cities is obtained, and the results of performance analysis are analyzed. Finally, based on the theory of system dynamics, the international dry port-city composite system is simulated, and the boundary conditions in the system are analyzed by causality analysis, and the dynamic flow diagram of dry port-city system is established. At the same time, taking Kunming International dry Port as an example, the system dynamics model is constructed by using Vensim PLE software, and the historical data are used to carry out many simulation tests. The mathematical equations of each variable are defined. The general simulation of Kunming dry port-city system is carried out, and the present situation and future development of the system are analyzed. Through policy simulation, the results of two simulations are compared. The sensitivity of each variable is analyzed, and the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of Kunming International dry Port are put forward according to the regional economic environment.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F259.27

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