天津市城镇化与产业结构优化的互动研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 09:15

本文关键词： 城镇化产业结构优化协调发展工业化　出处：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城镇化是当前我国国民经济发展的焦点问题,并于“十二五”期间首次提升至国家发展战略的高度,关系到我国经济的长期协调可持续发展。世界各国经验表明：城镇化水平和产业结构的优化升级密切相关,城镇化伴随着工业化产生,并推动产业结构向更高层次演进。产业结构的合理化能为城镇化的进一步深化提供不竭的产业动力,推动城镇化水平达到新的高度。近年来,天津市的城镇化进程虽已取得一定成绩,但“半城镇化”现象仍很明显,高城镇化率的背后亟待提升的是城镇化质量,尤其是第三产业发展缓慢、层次较低,抑制了城镇化整体水平的提高,因此促进产业结构优化升级与城镇化协调发展就显得尤为重要。论文回顾了天津市城镇化的历史进程,详细评述了天津市城镇化发展、产业结构演进的现状及存在问题,对天津市城镇化和产业结构优化的互动状况进行了定性、定量分析,并建立VAR模型分析了天津市城镇化和产业结构优化之间的动态响应过程。研究结果表明：天津市城镇化发展与农业产业现代化、产业结构优化之间相互影响,相互促进。第二、三产业的提升均会带动城镇化水平提高,长期来看第三产业对于城镇化的拉动作用强于第二产业。反之,城镇化水平的提高也会提升农业现代化水平、促进产业结构优化升级,但作用相对较弱。最后,结合天津市发展现状及实证结果,论文提出加快户籍制度改革促进产业结构升级,以农业现代化助推新型城镇化建设,科学合理推进产业梯度转移,促进区域产业协调联动发展等对策建议。论文的创新点主要有以下两方面：一是从经济二元性、产业结构、就业结构角度对城镇化和产业结构优化的互动状况进行了质量测评,以期全面描述天津市的发展情况,突破了以往仅进行定性分析的研究状况；二是选取天津市为研究对象,对其城镇化和产业结构优化的互动响应过程进行了动态分析,既丰富了以往仅进行简单回归分析的研究内容,又为达到高城镇化率后如何进一步提升城镇化质量提供了对策建议。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is the focus of the current national economic development, and in the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the first time to the national development strategy. Related to the long-term coordinated and sustainable development of China's economy. The experience of countries in the world shows that the level of urbanization and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure are closely related, and urbanization is accompanied by industrialization. The rationalization of industrial structure can provide inexhaustible industrial power for the further deepening of urbanization and push the level of urbanization to a new height in recent years. Although Tianjin has made some achievements in the process of urbanization, but the phenomenon of "semi-urbanization" is still obvious. The urgent need to improve the quality of urbanization is behind the high urbanization rate, especially the slow development of the tertiary industry, low levels. The overall level of urbanization is restrained, so it is particularly important to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and the coordinated development of urbanization. This paper reviews the historical process of urbanization in Tianjin. The present situation and existing problems of urbanization and industrial structure evolution in Tianjin are reviewed in detail. The interaction between urbanization and industrial structure optimization in Tianjin is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. VAR model was established to analyze the dynamic response process between urbanization and industrial structure optimization in Tianjin. The results show that: Tianjin urbanization development and agricultural industry modernization. The optimization of industrial structure affects each other and promotes each other. Second, the promotion of the third industry will promote the level of urbanization. In the long run, the third industry will play a stronger role than the second industry in promoting urbanization. The improvement of urbanization level will also improve the level of agricultural modernization, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, but the role is relatively weak. Finally, combined with the development of Tianjin and empirical results. The paper proposes to accelerate the reform of the household registration system to promote the upgrading of industrial structure, to promote the construction of new urbanization with agricultural modernization, and to promote the industrial gradient transfer scientifically and reasonably. The innovation of the paper mainly includes the following two aspects: first, from the economic duality, industrial structure. The quality of the interaction between urbanization and industrial structure optimization is evaluated from the perspective of employment structure, in order to describe the development of Tianjin in an all-round way and break through the previous research situation of only qualitative analysis. The second is to select Tianjin as the research object, and analyze the interactive response process of urbanization and industrial structure optimization, which enriches the research content of simple regression analysis in the past. It also provides countermeasures and suggestions on how to further improve the quality of urbanization after achieving high urbanization rate.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F299.27

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