基于EVA模型的我国上市银行的估值分析

发布时间：2018-01-21 07:25

本文关键词： 上市银行经济增加值企业价值　出处：《安徽大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：作为国民经济的重要组成部分,银行业关系着国家金融体系的安全与稳定。与此同时,上市银行股也是整个股市的重中之重,决定着证券市场的发展方向。随着我国金融改革步伐的加快,银行类上市公司的估值问题已经引起越来越多的关注。因此,本文旨在选用科学的评估方法估计出我国所有上市银行的价值进而指导投资者理性投资。本文首先对上市银行价值评估的研究背景及意义进行了简要的概述,并简单阐述了本文的研究内容和结构,然后回顾了国内外学者关于EVA指标的研究现状,并对其进行了总结评价,接着分别指出了本文的创新点和不足之处；其次,对传统的价值评估方法进行了考察,分析了现金流折现法、相对估值法、期权定价法和EVA估值法的优缺点,并将EVA估值法与其他三种方法进行比较得出EVA估值法在评估企业价值上更具有科学性和合理性；再次,对EVA估值模型进行分类介绍,选择出适用于上市银行的EVA两阶段估值模型,并详细介绍了上市银行EVA值计算过程中各个项目的确定以及相关会计科目的会计调整。在此基础上,本文对所有上市银行进行基于EVA模型的实证分析：首先计算了所有上市银行2012年的EVA和REVA指标,并据此分析各上市银行的经营绩效,结果表明在我国上市的所有银行中,股份制商业银行的业绩表现最好,国有商业银行的盈利能力处于中等水平,城市商业银行的业绩表现参差不齐；然后利用各上市银行2010-2012年年报中的相关数据,预测出上市银行2013-2015年的EVA值,再根据EVA两阶段估值模型,计算出2012年末各上市银行的企业价值及每股价值,并与沪深股市中的各上市银行的现实股价进行对比分析。最后,基于实证分析结果,从规模性和成长性两个方面入手,发掘出中国农业银行、兴业银行、中国民生银行、招商银行和宁波银行这五家银行更加具有投资价值,进而为投资者提供投资建议。
[Abstract]:As an important part of the national economy, the banking industry is related to the security and stability of the national financial system. At the same time, the listed bank shares are also the most important part of the whole stock market. With the acceleration of the pace of financial reform in China, the valuation of bank listed companies has attracted more and more attention. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the value of all listed banks in China by using scientific evaluation methods and to guide investors to invest rationally. Firstly, this paper briefly summarizes the research background and significance of the valuation of listed banks, and briefly describes the research content and structure of this paper. Then review the domestic and foreign scholars on the research status of EVA indicators, and evaluate it, and then point out the innovation and shortcomings of this paper; Secondly, the traditional valuation methods are investigated, and the advantages and disadvantages of discounted cash flow method, relative valuation method, option pricing method and EVA valuation method are analyzed. Comparing the EVA valuation method with the other three methods, it is concluded that the EVA valuation method is more scientific and reasonable in evaluating the enterprise value. Thirdly, the EVA valuation model is classified and introduced, and the two-stage EVA valuation model suitable for listed banks is selected. And detailed introduction of listed banks in the process of calculating the EVA value of each project and accounting adjustments related to the accounting. On this basis. This paper carries on the empirical analysis of all listed banks based on EVA model: firstly, the EVA and REVA indexes of all listed banks in 2012 are calculated, and the operating performance of each listed bank is analyzed accordingly. The results show that among all the banks listed in China, the performance of joint-stock commercial banks is the best, the profitability of state-owned commercial banks is at a medium level, and the performance of urban commercial banks is uneven. Then using the relevant data of the 2010-2012 annual report of each listed bank, the EVA value of the listed bank in 2013-2015 is forecasted, and then according to the two-stage valuation model of EVA. The enterprise value and the value per share of each listed bank in end of 2012 are calculated and compared with the real stock price of each listed bank in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market. Finally, based on the empirical analysis results. From the two aspects of scale and growth, find out the Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial Bank, Minsheng Bank of China, China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank, these five banks have more investment value. In turn, investors to provide investment advice.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F832.33

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