消费抑制与经济增长——基于中国省际面板的实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-21 17:59

本文关键词： 经济增长消费抑制消费投资出口　出处：《上海金融》2015年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文采用实证研究的方法,研究了消费抑制与经济增长的关系。在对改革开放以来中国31个省市面板数据进行单位根、协整、模型效应和面板异质性检验的基础上建立回归模型进行分析,采用极大似然估计法估计了中国经济增长与消费抑制的长期均衡方程和短期误差修正模型,采用面板向量自回归模型研究了发生外界冲击时消费抑制与经济增长之间传导响应的关系,考察了二者之间的格兰杰因果关系。考虑到经济增长和各经济要素的内生性,通过建立动态面板模型考察了各变量之间的动态关系。研究结果表明我国经济增长与消费抑制正相关,而两阶段最小二乘法表明消费抑制通过投资影响经济增长。
[Abstract]:This paper uses the empirical research method to study the relationship between consumption suppression and economic growth, and carries on unit root and cointegration to the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China since the reform and opening up. On the basis of model effect and panel heterogeneity test, the regression model is established and the long-term equilibrium equation and short-term error correction model of China's economic growth and consumption inhibition are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation. The panel vector autoregressive model is used to study the relationship between the conduction response between consumption suppression and economic growth in the event of external shocks. The Granger causality between the two is examined, considering the economic growth and the endogenous nature of the various economic elements. Dynamic panel model is established to investigate the dynamic relationship between variables. The results show that China's economic growth and consumption inhibition are positively correlated. The two-stage least-square method shows that consumer restraint affects economic growth through investment.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学金融学院;中国人民银行;
【分类号】：F126.1;F124;F224
【正文快照】： "!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!一、引言2008年国际金融危机以来,为保持经济增长,世界主要经济体多数采用量化宽松政策以刺激投资和消费的增长,降低失业率。从实际情况来看,发达经济体如美国、英国、日本等国的经济有一定程度的复苏,但整体的经济增长仍然非

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