基于ZETA模型的企业并购信用风险研究

发布时间：2018-01-25 06:17

本文关键词： 信用风险 ZETA模型横向并购纵向并购　出处：《安徽财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：历史上,美国已经出现了五次大的并购波,而且正在往外辐射。目前中国资本市场上的并购企业数目以及并购资产规模也呈现出逐年增多的趋势,并购多以股权交易为主,而且呈现出地域性特征。在金融危机和欧洲债务危机的国际大环境下,在经济快速发展和转型时期,中国企业并购中也存在着自身的问题。本文系统阐述了企业并购的涵义、动因、分类以及存在的并购风险。此外,具体地分析了横向并购、纵向并购以及混合并购产生的动因和协同效应。比较了横向并购、纵向并购的产生动因和协同效应在理论上的异同。本文基于ZETA模型,从上市公司中选取60个企业作为样本,选取8个财务指标,利用Fisher判别法计算出模型中变量的参数。将获得的ZETA模型用样本数据检验合格率均超过90%,并将验证合格的模型对企业并购信用风险评分。本文选取上海联华超市收购华联超市以及中国铝业有限公司并购云南铜业作为横向并购的案例分析；以博彦科技并购Extend Logic以及康美并购新开河和美峰食品公司作为纵向并购的案例分析。通过比较并购前后ZETA值变化情况,分析选取的四个案例的协同效应的差异。本文认为横向并购产生较大的规模效应,但这种协同效应不是马上就显现的,通过企业内部有效整合才能显现；纵向并购带来供应、运输的便捷,降低了交易成本,从而形成了短期的协同效应。但是,这种效应并不能持久,而且,纵向并购企业不在一个行业,所带来的整合难度较大,往往风险较大,所以会在后期增加企业的经营风险,降低ZETA值。最后,本文分析了产生并购企业信用风险的原因,再结合国内并购的现状,提出两方面对策：针对企业外部环境,应该减少政府的行政干预,完善企业并购法律法规,加快国内资本市场建设,发挥中介机构的辅助功能；针对企业自身,并购企业一方面在并购前做好准备工作：战略规划、筛选目标公司,另一方面要做好并购后的整合工作,从文化、战略、财务等方面做出相应的整合,以使企业发挥出并购后的协同效应,从而降低并购企业的信用风险。
[Abstract]:In the history, the United States has already appeared five big M & A waves, and is radiating outward. At present, the number of M & A enterprises and the M & A assets scale in the Chinese capital market are also showing the trend of increasing year by year. M & A is dominated by equity transactions, and presents regional characteristics. In the international environment of financial crisis and European debt crisis, in the period of rapid economic development and transformation. Chinese enterprises also have their own problems in M & A. This paper systematically expounds the meaning, motivation, classification and existing risks of M & A. In addition, it analyzes the horizontal M & A in detail. This paper compares the theoretical similarities and differences between the causes and synergistic effects of horizontal M & A, vertical M & A and mixed M A. Based on the ZETA model, this paper selects 60 companies from the listed companies as a sample, and selects 8 financial indicators. The parameters of the variables in the model are calculated by Fisher discriminant method. The qualified rate of the obtained ZETA model with sample data is more than 90%. And will verify the qualified model to the enterprise M & A credit risk score. This paper chooses Shanghai Lianhua supermarket to buy Hualian supermarket and China Aluminum Co., Ltd to purchase Yunnan Copper Industry as a case study of horizontal M & A; Taking Boyan Technology M & A of Extend Logic and Kangmei M & A of Xinkaihe and Meifeng Foods Company as the case analysis of vertical M & A. the changes of ZETA value before and after M & A were compared. This paper analyzes the differences of synergy effect in the four selected cases. This paper holds that horizontal M & A has a large scale effect, but this kind of synergy effect is not immediately apparent and can be manifested through effective integration within the enterprise. Vertical mergers and acquisitions bring supply, convenient transportation, reduce transaction costs, thus forming a short-term synergy effect, but this effect can not last, and vertical M & A enterprises are not in the same industry. The integration is more difficult and often more risky, so it will increase the business risk and reduce the ZETA value in the later stage. Finally, this paper analyzes the reasons for the credit risk of M & A enterprises, and then combines the current situation of domestic M & A, and puts forward two countermeasures: according to the external environment of enterprises, the government should reduce the administrative intervention. Perfecting the laws and regulations of enterprise merger and acquisition, speeding up the construction of domestic capital market and giving play to the auxiliary function of intermediary organizations; Aiming at the enterprises themselves, on the one hand, the M & A enterprises should do the preparation work before M & A: strategic planning, screening target companies, on the other hand, to do a good job of integration after M & A, from culture, strategy. In order to bring into play the synergetic effect after M & A and reduce the credit risk of M & A enterprises, the financial aspects should be integrated accordingly.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F271;F270;F224

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