“兰溪丽景”房地产投资项目的风险分析

发布时间：2018-01-29 23:47

本文关键词： 房地产投资风险风险因素层次分析法　出处：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着我国经济的迅速发展,房地产业的发展逐步走向正规的轨道,形成一个良好的循环,但是由于美国次贷危机的影响,我国房地产业从2007年第四季度开始,无论是销售数量还是房地产开发建筑面积开始走下行路线。同时又由于房地产行业周期长,影响因素众多,给房地产投资者带来巨大的投资风险。国家宏观调控政策的出台频繁,正是由于市场供求存在矛盾、法律法规体制还不如国外完善,使得房地产业目前正成为我国高风险的行业之一。对于房地产开发商来说,要想避免或者降低风险,必须关注市场动态的变化,充分准备好投资决策的功课是避免和降低房地产风险最关键的一步。对于房地产市场来说,要想房地产市场繁荣发展,面临众多的不确定性因素,只有充分掌握房地产风险分析的方法,定性与定量的方法相结合,才能为决策者提供科学合理的风险评价机制。因此,高度重视房地产项目投资风险分析具有十分重要的现实意义。在论述了研究房地产投资风险分析的研究背景和必要性,分别分析了国内外关于房地产投资风险分析的发展现状,阐述了本文研究房地产投资风险分析的研究方法,提出了该本文的研究框架图和创新之处。结合房地产项目管理风险投资分析的相关理论,房地产项目投资风险分析主要包括现实意义和基本目标,分别阐述了房地产投资决策风险识别方法——头脑风暴法、德尔斐法、情景分析法、筛选—监测—诊断技术以及故障树分析法。对风险评价指标选取的原则也做出了相应的论述。在房地产投资风险分析理论的基础上,选取“兰溪丽景”房地产项目为研究对象,介绍了“兰溪丽景”房地产项目的一般概况,对“兰溪丽景”房地产项目管理风险投资的前期、中期、后期的风险分析分别做出了介绍,最后根据实施风险管理后的变化,展示出了风险管理在“兰溪丽景”房地产项目管理风险投资中的巨大成果。根据“兰溪丽景”房地产项目的实际特点,运用层次分析法对此进行了实证分析,结合当地的社会人文环境,确定了影响“兰溪丽景”房地产项目顺利实施的主要风险因素,选择了最适合本项目的投资方案。从一般策略与具体策略的角度,提出了适合“兰溪丽景”房地产项目防范风险的措施。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the development of the real estate industry gradually towards the formal track, forming a good cycle, but due to the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. Since in the fourth quarter of 2007, China's real estate industry began to take a downward route, both in terms of sales volume and the building area of real estate development. At the same time, because of the long period of the real estate industry, there are many influencing factors. Bring huge investment risk to the real estate investors. The national macro-control policy comes out frequently, it is precisely because of the contradiction between supply and demand in the market, the legal system is not as perfect as the foreign countries. The real estate industry is becoming one of the high-risk industries in China. For real estate developers, to avoid or reduce the risk, we must pay attention to the changes of market dynamics. It is the most important step to avoid and reduce the risk of real estate. For the real estate market, there are many uncertain factors to make the real estate market prosperous and develop. Only by fully mastering the real estate risk analysis method and combining qualitative and quantitative methods can we provide a scientific and reasonable risk evaluation mechanism for decision makers. It is of great practical significance to attach great importance to the risk analysis of real estate investment. This paper discusses the background and necessity of the research on the risk analysis of real estate investment. This paper analyzes the development status of real estate investment risk analysis at home and abroad, and expounds the research methods of real estate investment risk analysis in this paper. Put forward the research frame diagram and innovation of this paper. Combined with the real estate project management risk investment analysis theory, real estate project investment risk analysis mainly includes practical significance and basic objectives. Separately elaborated real estate investment decision risk identification method-brainstorming method, Delphi method, scenario analysis method. Screening-monitoring-diagnosis technology and fault tree analysis. The principles of risk evaluation index selection are also discussed. On the basis of real estate investment risk analysis theory. Select "Lanxi Lijing" real estate project as the research object, introduce the general situation of "Lanxi Lijing" real estate project, the "Lanxi Lijing" real estate project management risk investment in the early and middle stage. Later risk analysis is introduced, and finally according to the changes after the implementation of risk management. This paper shows the great achievements of risk management in the risk investment of real estate project management of Lanxi Lijing. According to the actual characteristics of the real estate project of "Lanxi Lijing", the paper makes an empirical analysis by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Combined with the local social and cultural environment, this paper determines the main risk factors that affect the successful implementation of the real estate project "Lanxi Lijing", and selects the most suitable investment plan for the project. The paper puts forward the measures to prevent the risk of the real estate project of Lanxi Lijing.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.233.42

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