供电企业技改项目后评价方法及实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-15 08:21

本文关键词： 供电企业技改项目变权物元可拓模型理想区间法后评价　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济的持续发展，用电需求也持续增长，承担电力供应的供电企业也得到迅速发展。同时传统能源的大量消耗，，一方面使我国的传统能源资源快速枯竭，另一方面也造成了严重的环境污染。现实要求我们必须大力开发清洁的、可再生的新能源。为了保障新能源的发展与应用，供电网络的建设、运营也面临了许多新的挑战。其中，不断提高供电网的智能化，柔性化，以更好地容纳分布式能源，成为供电网建设的重要内容之一。这种发展趋势，导致供电网的改选项目以及资金投入持续增长。与此同时，供电企业强劲的发展势头使得电力投资项目后评价研究具有必要性和紧迫性。重要建设项目的后评价理论研究已经进入了一个相对成熟的阶段，然而对于供电企业技改项目的后评价研究则比较缺乏，目前没有一套合理、全面、通用的指标体系，并且后评价方法的研究也过多注重静态方法，没有一套科学合理的动态后评价方法。针对这一问题，本文结合供电企业自身的行业特点从项目目标实现程度、技术水平、经济效益、社会效益以及持续能力五个方面建立供电企业技改项目完善的后评价指标体系，并且提出了一套基于理想区间法的变权物元可拓模型。该模型为体现指标本身的相对重要性和反映综合评价中诸要素状态的均衡性，利用评价对象的主动参与，即变权理论来确定评价指标的权重，同时，运用理想区间法来计算待评价对象与评价标准等级的贴进度。最后通过案例分析进行了有效验证，具有很好的实际应用效果。
[Abstract]:With the sustained development of China's economy, the demand for electricity continues to grow, and the power supply enterprises that undertake the power supply have also developed rapidly. At the same time, the massive consumption of traditional energy resources has on the one hand caused the rapid depletion of traditional energy resources in China. On the other hand, it has also caused serious environmental pollution. The reality requires us to vigorously develop clean and renewable new energy sources. In order to ensure the development and application of new energy sources, the construction of power supply networks, Operation also faces many new challenges. Among them, continuously improving the intelligence and flexibility of the power supply network to better accommodate distributed energy has become one of the important contents of the power supply network construction. At the same time, the strong development momentum of power supply enterprises makes the post-evaluation research of power investment project necessary and urgent. The research on post-evaluation theory of important construction projects has entered a relatively mature stage, however, the post-evaluation research of power supply enterprise technical innovation projects is relatively lacking, and there is no reasonable, comprehensive and universal index system. And the research of post-evaluation method also pays too much attention to static method, and there is not a set of scientific and reasonable dynamic post-evaluation method. In view of this problem, this paper combines the industry characteristics of power supply enterprise from the degree of realization of project objectives, the level of technology, Set up a perfect post-evaluation index system of power supply enterprise technical innovation project in five aspects: economic benefit, social benefit and sustainable ability. A variable weight matter-element extension model based on the ideal interval method is proposed. The model reflects the relative importance of the index itself and the equilibrium of the state of the elements in the comprehensive evaluation, and makes use of the active participation of the evaluation object. That is, variable weight theory is used to determine the weight of the evaluation index, and at the same time, the method of ideal interval is used to calculate the progress of the object to be evaluated and the grade of the evaluation standard. Finally, a case study is carried out to verify effectively, which has a good practical application effect.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;F224

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