工资、实际汇率与中国的哈罗德—巴拉萨—萨缪尔森拓展模型效应

发布时间：2018-02-21 06:25

本文关键词： 人民币实际汇率哈罗德-巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应劳动生产率　出处：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人民币汇率从来都是被理论、实务两个领域密切关注的话题。而现实中实际汇率的变动对于一个国家的经济也是有着非常深远的影响的。而哈罗德-巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应(H-B-S)假说理论是非常重要的实际汇率理论之一。根据H-B-S效应理论当一国的贸易部门劳动生产率水平提升时,该国货币的实际汇率也会同时伴随着升值的情况出现。该理论得到了全世界范围内许多学者的关注,并对多国的数据进行了实证研究。在H-B-S模型当中一个重要的传导环节就是假设劳动生产率与工资水平之间的传导在两部门之间是畅通的。但是实际情况通常并不是如此。通过理论推导可以得到假设两部门工资水平不等时的H-B-S拓展模型,该模型更符合一般的实际情况,特别是发展中国家的情况。为了验证该拓展模型的解释力,文章选取了1978-2012年国内外的相关数据进行实证分析。可以发现,H-B-S效应在中国是显著存在的,变量之间具有长期均衡的协整关系,但由于一些客观的原因其解释力受到了限制。
[Abstract]:The RMB exchange rate has always been theorized, The real exchange rate changes have a very profound impact on a country's economy. And the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect hypothesis theory is very great. One of the important real exchange rate theories. According to the H-B-S effect theory, when a country's level of labor productivity in the trade sector increases, The real exchange rate of the country's currency will also be accompanied by appreciation, a theory that has attracted the attention of many scholars around the world. An important transmission link in H-B-S model is to assume that the transmission between labor productivity and wage level is smooth between the two sectors, but the actual situation is usually not. By theoretical derivation, we can get the H-B-S extension model with different wage levels in two departments. The model is more in line with the actual situation in general, especially in developing countries. In order to verify the explanatory power of the extended model, This paper selects relevant data from 1978 to 2012 for empirical analysis. It can be found that H-B-S effect exists significantly in China and there is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between variables, but its explanatory power is limited due to some objective reasons.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F249.24

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