基于风险定位的房地产企业财务风险预警研究

发布时间：2018-02-28 07:35

本文关键词： 房地产企业财务风险预警因子分析　出处：《哈尔滨理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自2003年我国经济开始大幅度增长以来，房地产行业随着宏观经济的发展呈现迅猛的发展态势，房地产企业也如雨后春笋般诞生。但是自2008年开始，国家针对房地产业过热的问题进行了一系列的宏观调控，从“国五条”到“国八条”再到“新国五条”，每一项政策的施行，都对过热的房地产业起到降温的作用。国家在对房地产市场降温的同时，房地产企业的财务风险也随之加大。因此，在宏观经济形势不断波动及国家调控政策不断出台的背景下，房地产企业若想在行业中立于不败之地，对于自身所处的环境要有清晰认识的基础上，更要对企业的财务风险进行有效的预警和防控，这不仅是房地产企业能够保持稳定发展的前提，，更是对投资者、政府管理当局和银行等金融机构得到准确的财务信息的重要保障。以往关于房地产业财务风险预警的文献中，大部分学者都是站在企业内部的角度，针对企业内部可能对财务风险产生的因素进行风险预警及防控，没有充分考虑外部因素的波动对企业财务风险的影响。因此，本文在总结了前人们的研究基础上从分析房地产业行业特征和房地产企业财务特征入手，着重分析出导致房地产企业财务风险的重要因素，并结合外部环境的变迁对财务风险形成的机理进行详细的剖析。依据财务指标和非财务指标设计出是否与企业的财务状况同步波动的先导指标、同步指标和滞后指标。运用因子分析方法对先导指标、同步指标、滞后指标和综合预警指标进行筛选和计算，依据综合预警指标的数值判断企业所属的警度大小。最后根据风险雷达定位图定位出企业具体的风险来源及影响因子较大的变量，有侧重性的对产生财务风险的因素进行风险防控，选取相应的防控措施。
[Abstract]:Since 2003, when the economy of our country began to grow by a large margin, the real estate industry has been developing rapidly with the development of the macro economy, and the real estate enterprises have been springing up. But since 2008, the real estate industry has been developing rapidly. The state has carried out a series of macro-control measures against the overheating of the real estate industry, from "National five" to "State eight" to "New State five". Both play a role in cooling the overheated real estate industry. While the state is cooling down the real estate market, the financial risks of real estate enterprises also increase. Under the background of the constant fluctuation of the macroeconomic situation and the continuous promulgation of the national regulation and control policies, if the real estate enterprises want to be invincible in the industry, they should have a clear understanding of their own environment. More importantly, it is necessary to carry out effective early warning and prevention and control of the financial risks of enterprises. This is not only a prerequisite for the stable development of real estate enterprises, but also a prerequisite for investors. Government authorities and banks and other financial institutions to obtain accurate financial information an important guarantee. In the previous literature on financial risk early warning of real estate industry, most scholars are from the angle of enterprise interior, and carry out risk warning and prevention and control to the factors that may produce financial risk in the enterprise. The influence of the fluctuation of external factors on the financial risk of the enterprise is not fully considered. Therefore, this paper begins with the analysis of the industry characteristics of the real estate industry and the financial characteristics of the real estate enterprise on the basis of summarizing the previous studies. Focusing on the analysis of the important factors leading to the financial risks of real estate enterprises, Combined with the change of external environment, the mechanism of financial risk formation is analyzed in detail. According to the financial index and non-financial index, the pilot index is designed to synchronize with the enterprise's financial situation. Factor analysis is used to screen and calculate the leading index, synchronization index, lag index and comprehensive early warning index. Finally, according to the risk radar positioning map, the specific risk sources of the enterprise and the variables with large influence factors are identified. Focus on the risk prevention and control of the financial risk factors, select the corresponding prevention and control measures.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F299.233.4

【引证文献】