新疆经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关联性研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 11:55

本文选题：经济周期波动　切入点：产业结构　出处：《新疆财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济周期波动作为社会经济运动的一种重要形式，就受到国内外理论界的广泛关注。研究经济波动时，各国学者从不同的研究点分析波动情况，比如国家的各种财政政策、货币政策对波动的影响，产业总体结构和内部结构变动对波动的影响等等。最近国内大部分学者研究经济波动时，，从产业变动与社会整体经济波动之间找出两者之间的关联性的分析框架成为了主流。关于新疆而言，这种研究主流还没有形成，可以说基本上没有。有鉴于此，本人在国内外相关研究成果的基础，利用新疆各年代的不同统计资料，深入分析研究新疆经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关系。本文首先总体上界定新疆1955年到2012年的经济周期阶段，然后分析历次经济周期阶段中的产业结构变动，在此研究的基础上利用不同的计量方法进一步弄清楚两者之间的关系，最后按照分析结果提出对策建议。文章的整体思路是如下：第一章，本章研究总体的论述了，问题的提出、选题的背景及意义、关于经济周期波动与产业结构变动关系的相关文献综述和整个文章的框架设计及研究思路方法。对相关文献综述主要是从国内和国外分类阐述的。第二章，按照整篇论文的逻辑结构，在本文的第二章对文章始终需要的理论部分和理论基础进行了详细的阐述。第三章，从1955-2012年的新疆经济的情况来界定了新疆经济周期波动阶段。探讨了波动阶段特征和引起波动的因素。第四章，利用指标分析法，协同性影响法，格兰杰因果检验等分析方法大体上判断新疆经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关联性，总结出两者之间的影响关系。第五章，基于整篇论文的相关分析结果，该阶段针对性地提出几点优化新疆产业结构、减稳波动的对策建议。本论文的价值是较详细地探讨1955-2012年间新疆经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关联性，判断出两者之间的变动因果关系，这对于新疆实现产业结构的优化和整个社会经济的稳定、持续发展意义重大。
[Abstract]:As an important form of social and economic movements, business cycle fluctuations have attracted extensive attention from the theoretical circles at home and abroad. When studying economic fluctuations, scholars from various countries analyze fluctuations from different research points, such as various fiscal policies of the country. The impact of monetary policy on volatility, the impact of changes in the overall structure of industry and the internal structure on volatility, etc. Recently, when most domestic scholars studied economic fluctuations, The analytical framework to find out the correlation between industrial changes and social and economic fluctuations has become the mainstream. As far as Xinjiang is concerned, this kind of research mainstream has not yet been formed, which can be said to be basically not. In view of this, On the basis of the relevant research results at home and abroad, I use different statistical data from different periods in Xinjiang. This paper analyzes the relationship between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of industrial structure in Xinjiang. Firstly, the paper defines the period of economic cycle from 1955 to 2012 in Xinjiang, and then analyzes the change of industrial structure in each period of economic cycle. On the basis of this study, the relationship between them is further clarified by using different metrological methods. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward according to the results of the analysis. The overall thinking of this paper is as follows:. The first chapter, this chapter discusses the whole research, puts forward the problem, the background and significance of the topic, The related literatures on the relationship between business cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change and the frame design and research methods of the whole article are summarized. The related literature review is mainly classified from domestic and foreign countries. In the second chapter, according to the logical structure of the whole thesis, the theoretical part and theoretical basis of the article are expounded in detail. The third chapter defines the fluctuation stage of Xinjiang's economic cycle from 1955-2012, and discusses the characteristics of the fluctuation stage and the factors that cause the fluctuation. In chapter 4th, we use index analysis method, synergistic impact method and Granger causality test to judge the correlation between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in Xinjiang, and summarize the influence relationship between them. In chapter 5th, based on the relevant analysis results of the whole paper, the countermeasures and suggestions of optimizing Xinjiang's industrial structure and reducing the fluctuation of stability are put forward in this stage. The value of this paper is to discuss in detail the relationship between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of industrial structure in Xinjiang during 1955-2012, and to judge the causal relationship between the changes, which is helpful to realize the optimization of the industrial structure and the stability of the whole society and economy in Xinjiang. Sustainable development is of great significance.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F223

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