中国首次“低碳试点”政策的减碳效果评价——基于五省八市的DID估计

发布时间：2018-03-13 17:36

本文选题：低碳试点　切入点：碳排放　出处：《科技管理研究》2015年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：2010年7月中国在广东、云南等五省八市开展首批低碳试点工作。截至2012年底,该政策已实施3年,目前还未文献对其效果进行考察。通过利用中国30个省市自治区(不包括西藏、香港、澳门和台湾)2005—2012年面板数据和构建双重差分模型(DID),首次对试点政策的减碳效果进行评价。结果显示:(1)实行低碳试点的地区显著降低了其人均碳排放量,2010—2012年间平均影响效应为-0.074 2;(2)时间趋势上,减碳效果由不显著到显著、由弱到强,2010—2012年各年碳影响效应分别为不显著、-0.075 1和-0.099 6。得出结论:低碳试点取得了显著且持续性的成效。总结试点地区的成功经验,以供其他地区借鉴参考。
[Abstract]:In July 2010, China launched the first batch of low-carbon pilot projects in five provinces and eight cities, including Guangdong and Yunnan. By end of 2012, the policy had been implemented for three years. There is no literature to examine its effect. By using 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China (excluding Tibet and Hong Kong), The panel data of Macao and Taiwan from 2005 to 2012 and the construction of a double differential model DIDI, for the first time, evaluated the carbon reduction effect of the pilot policy. The results show that the regions with low carbon pilot have significantly reduced their per capita carbon emissions during the period 2010-2012. The response effect is -0.074 2 / 2) time trend, The carbon reduction effect is from not significant to significant, and from weak to strong from 2010 to 2012, the carbon impact effects in each year are respectively -0.075 1 and -0.099 6. It is concluded that the low carbon pilot has achieved significant and sustained results. The successful experience of the pilot area is summarized. For reference in other regions.
【作者单位】：上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“实现2020年我国控制温室气体排放行动目标对策研究”(10AZD015) 上海财经大学研究生创新基金项目“碳减排约束下的我国产业转移路径研究”(CXJJ-2012-302)
【分类号】：F124.5;F224

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