基于DEA-Malmquist指数和CGE模型的天津市能源回弹效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-16 07:49

本文选题：全要素能源效率　切入点：回弹效应　出处：《天津理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，天津市经济快速发展，能源消耗持续增加，随之带来了经济发展与能源消耗增长之间的矛盾问题。能源问题成为经济发展中共同关注的焦点问题。如何在保障经济快速发展的前提下，最大可能地降低能源的消耗，节约能源，是经济发展中需要面对的迫切问题。提高能源效率、降低能源消耗是缓解能源短缺问题的重要途径。就天津市而言，通过提高能源使用效率是否能够真正的降低能源消耗总量，以及其与能源利用效率的影响关系需要进一步研究。本文围绕提高能源效率和能源效率对能源回弹效应的影响两大核心问题，根据天津市历年的经济增长、资本投入和能源消耗状况，对天津市历年的全要素能源效率进行测算，然后基于能源效率测算天津市历年的能源回弹效应状况。对全要素能源效率和能源回弹效应的影响因素进行系统分析，分析天津市1996-2011年的全要素能源效率和能源回弹效应的变化状况，分析影响它们变化的各种因素。并建立CGE模型对宏观层面内，现有政策和技术条件下能源效率对能源消费、回弹效应的影响状况进行分析，，对政策制定做出指导。具体研究内容如下： 1.对国内外有关全要素能源效率、回弹效应、能源回弹效应问题的已有研究进行了系统分析，对已有的研究理论以及研究方法进行了归纳和总结，并对研究中存在的问题给出了相关评述，明确本文的研究的基本理论与基本方法。 2.对天津市历年的经济发展状况和天津市能源消耗现状进行了分析，主要包括历年的经济发展情况、能源的生产情况、能源总体消耗水平等。 3.以天津市1996-2011年资本投入、劳动力总数、能源消耗和GDP情况为基本数据，运用DEA-Malmquist指数法对天津市的全要素生产率、全要素能源效率进行测算，并建立Tobit模型运用Eviews6.0软件从技术进步、政府决策影响、能源消费结构等方面对影响全要素能源效率的各种因素及其影响程度进行分析，有针对性的提出提高能源效率的措施。 4.基于全要素能源效率对天津市1996-2011年的能源回弹效应进行测算，分析期间的能源回弹效应的变化状况。通过建立CGE模型运用GAMS软件对宏观层面内，现有政策和技术条件下能源效率对能源消费、回弹效应的影响状况进行分析。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Tianjin's economy has developed rapidly and energy consumption has continued to increase. This brings the contradiction between economic development and energy consumption growth. Energy issues have become the focus of common concern in economic development. How to reduce energy consumption as far as possible under the premise of ensuring rapid economic development, Energy conservation is an urgent problem in economic development. Improving energy efficiency and reducing energy consumption are important ways to alleviate energy shortage. Whether energy efficiency can really reduce the total amount of energy consumption, The relationship between energy efficiency and energy efficiency needs further study. This paper focuses on the two core issues of improving energy efficiency and energy efficiency on energy resilience, according to the economic growth of Tianjin over the years. The capital input and energy consumption, the total factor energy efficiency of Tianjin over the years, Then, based on the energy efficiency, the energy springback effect in Tianjin over the years is measured. The factors affecting energy efficiency and energy resilience are systematically analyzed. This paper analyzes the changes of total factor energy efficiency and energy springback effect in Tianjin from 1996 to 2011, and analyzes the various factors that affect their changes. The CGE model is established to analyze the energy consumption of energy efficiency under the existing policy and technology conditions at the macro level. The impact of the springback effect is analyzed, and the policy formulation is guided. The specific research contents are as follows:. 1. The existing researches on energy efficiency, springback effect and springback effect are systematically analyzed, and the existing research theories and methods are summarized and summarized. The existing problems in the research are reviewed, and the basic theory and methods of this study are clarified. 2. The economic development and energy consumption in Tianjin are analyzed, including the economic development, energy production and total energy consumption. 3. Based on the basic data of capital input, total labor force, energy consumption and GDP in Tianjin from 1996 to 2011, the total factor productivity and total factor energy efficiency of Tianjin were measured by DEA-Malmquist index method. The Tobit model is established and the Eviews6.0 software is used to analyze the factors affecting the energy efficiency of all factors from the aspects of technological progress, government decision making and energy consumption structure, and the measures to improve the energy efficiency are put forward. 4. Based on all-factor energy efficiency, the energy springback effect of Tianjin from 1996 to 2011 is measured, and the change of energy springback effect during this period is analyzed. Through the establishment of CGE model and GAMS software, the energy springback effect is analyzed. The impact of energy efficiency on energy consumption and resilience is analyzed under existing policies and technologies.
【学位授予单位】：天津理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F206

【参考文献】