广东省城镇化发展对居民消费需求的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 03:43

本文选题：城镇化　切入点：居民消费　出处：《广东外语外贸大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文以研究广东省城镇化发展对居民消费需求的影响为主线，层层递进，剖析了广东城镇化发展的现状、广东省城乡居民消费的特征，然后运用了协整分析的方法研究了广东省城镇化的发展对城乡居民消费需求的作用，并且进一步运用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数分析研究了城镇化与城镇居民以及农村居民消费间的动态关系，并在此基础上提出了一些政策建议。本文的主要的结论结果如下：第一，广东省综合城镇化水平和人口城镇化水平的发展不协调，人口城镇化水平大于综合城镇化水平；第二，广东省城乡居民的消费需求、消费率、平均消费倾向以及消费结构等均存在较大的差异；第三，广东省城镇化的发展与城镇居民和农村居民的消费需求之间存在长期稳定的协整关系，城镇化水平每变动一个百分点，，将带来城镇居民消费同方向变动1.091个百分点和农村居民消费同方向变动0.8388个百分点；第四，脉冲响应的结果表明广东省城镇化的发展对农村居民和城镇居民都具有正向效应，但是对城镇居民的正向效应大于对农村居民的正向效应。
[Abstract]:Based on the study of the influence of the urbanization development of Guangdong Province on the consumption demand of the residents, this paper analyzes the current situation of the urbanization development in Guangdong Province and the characteristics of the consumption of urban and rural residents in Guangdong Province. Then, the co-integration analysis method is used to study the effect of the development of urbanization in Guangdong on the consumption demand of urban and rural residents. Furthermore, the dynamic relationship between urbanization and the consumption of urban and rural residents is studied by using VAR model and impulse response function, and some policy suggestions are put forward. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the level of comprehensive urbanization and the level of population urbanization in Guangdong Province is not coordinated, the level of population urbanization is greater than the level of comprehensive urbanization; second, the consumption demand of urban and rural residents in Guangdong Province, There are significant differences in consumption rate, average consumption tendency and consumption structure. Thirdly, there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between the development of urbanization in Guangdong Province and the consumption demand of urban and rural residents. If the urbanization level changes by one percentage point, it will bring about a change of 1.091 percentage points in the same direction of consumption of urban residents and 0.8388 percentage points in the same direction of consumption of rural residents; 4th, The results of pulse response show that the development of urbanization in Guangdong Province has a positive effect on both rural and urban residents, but the positive effect on urban residents is greater than that on rural residents.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27;F126.1

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