中国县域人口就业数与经济增长动态关系的实证研究——基于面板VAR模型的估计

发布时间：2018-03-22 06:37

本文选题：经济增长　切入点：人口就业　出处：《干旱区资源与环境》2015年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：就业问题在国民经济中占有非常重要的位置,是各级政府关注的焦点,是维护社会和谐与稳定的关键问题之一。西方经济学者曾普遍认为经济增长是解决失业问题的最有效途径之一,然而中国高速经济增长的同时还伴随着失业率的上升,因此文中基于2001-2011年中国1988个县的县域GDP和就业劳动力数量的面板数据,构建PVAR模型,在此基础上进行脉冲响应函数以及方差分解分析,以考察县域经济与就业两者之间的动态关系。实证结果表明,县域经济增长并不能带动县域就业的增加,相反,经济增长对劳动力就业有微弱的抑制作用。从要素贡献角度看,就业劳动力是经济增长的因素之一,但就业劳动力对县域经济增长的作用较微弱。
[Abstract]:The issue of employment occupies a very important position in the national economy and is the focus of attention of governments at all levels. Economic growth is one of the key issues in maintaining social harmony and stability. Western economists generally believed that economic growth was one of the most effective ways to solve the unemployment problem. However, China's rapid economic growth was accompanied by an increase in the unemployment rate. Therefore, based on the panel data of county GDP and the number of employed labor force in 1988 counties of China from 2001 to 2011, the PVAR model is constructed, and the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are carried out. In order to investigate the dynamic relationship between county economy and employment, the empirical results show that county economic growth can not lead to the increase of county employment, on the contrary, economic growth has a weak restraining effect on labor force employment. The employment labor force is one of the factors of the economic growth, but the employment labor force has a weak effect on the county economic growth.
【作者单位】：盐城师范学院商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51178091)资助
【分类号】：F249.2;F124

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