我国城镇公共资本存量的估算研究（1995-2012）

发布时间：2018-03-23 09:55

本文选题：城镇公共资本存量　切入点：永续盘存法　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：资本存量是宏观经济研究中研究生产函数、经济增长、投资效率、全要素增长率等无法避免的要素。本文在学者关于资本存量估算研究的基础之上,借鉴学者关于资本存量估算中的经典、通行处理方式方法,细化资本存量的口径,估算了我国的城镇公共资本存量,并在此基础之上进行了诸多分析。本文一开始论述了本文的研究背景及意义。研究背景体现在两个大的方面：市场经济体制与特殊的政治体制以及城镇化。我国的公共投资以及资本存量规模是与我国的经济体制发展息息相关的。新中国成立初期的计划经济时代,公共投资占据国民经济投资的主导地位,公共资本存量的积累规模也占据了国民经济总资本存量的较大部分。在1978年经济体制改革后,市场经济体制开始发挥作用。公共资本投资所占国民经济投资的比例开始下降,主要是私人投资规模开始扩大,私人投资开始兴盛。所以,现在的公共投资及其资本积累要求更多的是质的积累,注重公共投资的效率,注重公共资本的产出效率等。城镇化的过程中必然会有许多公共投资以及资本的积累。早在“十一五”规划纲要就已经明确“要把城市群作为推进城镇化的主体形态”,2013年6月,新一轮城镇化规划正在制定中,而城市群作为未来城镇化发展的主体形态被赋予更多关注。当今以及今后较长的一段时间内,城镇化的快速推进是大的政策方向。城镇化的过程中,必然会有大量资本的投资以及积累。其中公共投资的规模以及内涵也在不断扩展。关注公共投资规模以及资本存量效率等问题也是十分必须的。接着本文简单概括了研究方法及论文结构。本文的研究方法是PIM法,即永续盘存法。其基本思路是下一期期初的净资本存量Kt-1,可以看作本期期初的净资本存量Kt和本期的投资It：以及折旧Dt的函数,并假设资本效率呈几何方式递减。从而Kt-1=Kt(1-δ)-It/P,因此,在PIM法中,我们需要进行处理的因素有：基年资本存量,折旧率,投资序列数据以及投资价格指数。后面的估算也是基于对四个因素的处理方法选择进行的,可以说对这四个因素的选择就是PIM法成功的关键。第二部分是文献综述部分。本文先综述了学者关于资本存量的研究,主要是对于不同学者对于关键要素的处理方法的讨论。接着综述了学者关于公共资本存量的研究,主要是对于研究公共资本存量中处理方法的选择及原因和公共资本存量估算研究的特殊困难。第三部分是对“城镇公共资本存量”进行范围界定。公共资本是政府在公共部门的公共投资形成的资本积累,对公共资本进行范围界定,是研究公共资本存量的第一步和关键性的一步。正因为公共资本的积累是由于公共投资引致的,那么必须界定好公共投资的范围。从方向来看,包括两个大类的投资：一是社会公益类项目投资,二是经济基础类项目投资。第四部分是本文的主体部分,对我国城镇公共资本存量进行估算。本文的研究从1995年开始,先讨论了分析方法-永续盘存法。接着也是对永续盘存法中四个因素的具体处理。最后估算出了我国1995年不变价的1995-2012年的城镇公共资本存量数据,在此基础上作了简单的趋势分析和资本-产出比分析。用相同的方法估算出全社会公共资本存量,进而可知城镇公共资本存量与全社会公共资本存量之比,接着估算全社会的固定资本存量,从而得知城镇公共资本存量与固定资本存量之比及其变化。最后又由全社会固定资本存量与全社会公共资本存量之差得出私人资本存量,从而分析城镇公共资本存量与私人资本存量的发展关系及其变化原因探讨。由估算及分析,本文得出的结论有：1、我国的公共投资以及公共资本积累处在一个高速平稳发展的阶段,公共投资稳健增长,城镇公共资本也在快速积累。这对于国民经济的发展具有现实性的意义。2、城镇公共资本产出比经历了一个上升以及下降和平稳小幅上升的阶段,这说明城镇公共资本的效率的波动情况是一个下降以及上升和小幅下降的过程。进而由规模效应递减的规律分析波动的原因可能是资本投资规模的波动。3、城镇公共资本存量占据了全社会公共资本存量的绝大部分,结合城镇化的大背景可知未来城镇公共资本存量仍有上升的空间。4、我国城镇公共资本存量占全社会资本存量的比例稳定,反应了城镇公共资本存量的稳健发展,我国的资本存量的内部结构也相对稳定。5、对于广大农村来说,公共投资以及公共资本积累速度远远落后于城镇的水平,反映了对广大农村的公共投资的严重不足以及农村公共资本积累的薄弱,这也应是广大农村地区积贫积弱的主要原因。因此,未来城镇化的过程中应加大对农村地区的公共投资,促进公共资本在农村的积累。这对政策的推行也是有利的。
[Abstract]:The capital stock is the study of the production function, macroeconomic research in economic growth, investment efficiency, the elements can not avoid the TFP growth rate. In this paper based on the research of scholars on the estimation of capital stock, capital stock estimation reference scholars on the classic pass processing methods, refine the capital stock of the caliber, I estimate China's urban public capital stock, and on the basis of a lot of analysis.
This paper first discusses the background and significance of this study. The research background is reflected in two aspects: the market economy system and the special political system and urbanization. China's public investment and capital stock scale and the economic system of our country is closely related to the development of the planned economy era. The early founding of new China. Public investment occupies the leading position of the national economy investment, the scale of public capital stock accumulation also occupies a large part of the national economy. The total capital stock in 1978 after the reform of the economic system, market economic system began to play a role. The public capital investment in GDP and the proportion of investment began to decline, mainly private investment scale began to expand private investment began to flourish. Therefore, public investment and capital accumulation now are demanding more matter accumulation, pay attention to the efficiency of public investment, pay attention to the public The output efficiency of the capital. The process of urbanization will inevitably have a lot of public investment and capital accumulation. As early as in the "11th Five-Year plan" has been clear to the city group as the main form of urbanization ", in June 2013, a new round of urban planning is made, and the city group as the main body the future development of urbanization has been given more attention. Nowadays and in the future a longer period of time, the rapid advance of urbanization is the big policy direction. The process of urbanization, there must be a large number of capital investment and accumulation. The scale of public investment and the connotation has been extended. Public concern the scale of investment and capital efficiency is very necessary.
Then this paper summarizes the research methods and thesis structure. This research method is PIM method, namely the perpetual inventory method. The basic idea is the next period at the beginning of the net capital stock of Kt-1, can be seen as the beginning of the current period net capital stock Kt and the period of investment: It and Dt and the function of depreciation. Assuming that capital efficiency is decreasing. So the geometry Kt-1=Kt (1- 8) -It/P, therefore, in the PIM method, we need to deal with factors: base year capital stock, depreciation rate, investment and investment price index series data. The estimation is based on four methods for the selection of the element. It can be said of the four factors is the key to the success of the PIM selection method.
The second part is literature review. The research about the capital stock of this paper first reviews the scholars, mainly to discuss the methods for processing different scholars. Research on key elements of the public capital stock and then summarizes the scholars, mainly the special difficulties for the estimation of selection and processing method of public reason in public capital stock and capital stock. The third part is the "urban public capital stock" scope. The public capital is the government in the formation of public investment in public sector capital accumulation, the scope of the definition of public capital, is the first step and the key step of public capital stock. Because public capital accumulation is due to the public investment caused by, so we have to define the scope of public investment. From the direction of view, including two categories: one is the investment of public project investment Capital, two is an investment in economic infrastructure projects.
The fourth part is the main part of this paper, to estimate China's urban public capital stock. This study from the beginning of 1995, first discussed analysis method. Then the perpetual inventory method is specific to the four factors in the perpetual inventory method. Finally estimate China's constant 1995 1995-2012 years of urban public the data of the capital stock, based on the simple trend analysis and capital output ratio analysis. To estimate the public capital stock in the same way, then it is known that the urban public capital and public capital stock ratio, then estimate the fixed capital stock, so that the urban public capital stock and fixed the ratio of the capital stock changes. Finally by the total fixed capital stock and total public capital stock of the private capital stock, and analysis of urban public information The relationship between the stock of this stock and the stock of private capital and the reasons for its change.
By calculation and analysis, the conclusions of this paper are: 1, China's public investment and public capital accumulation in a high stage of stable development, the steady growth of public investment, urban public capital is rapidly accumulating. It is practical for the development of the national economy and the significance of.2, urban public capital output ratio experience a rising and falling and a slight rise in the volatility of the stage, the efficiency of urban public capital is a decline and rise and decline slightly. The reason analysis of the law of fluctuation and by decreasing the scale effect may be the fluctuation of.3 capital investment scale, urban public capital stock accounted for most of all the public capital stock, with the urbanization background of the future urban public capital stock still has space.4 rising, China's urban public capital stock accounted for the whole society Capital stock ratio is stable, reaction and steady development of the urban public capital stock, the internal structure of capital stock in China is relatively stable.5, for the majority of rural areas, public investment and public capital accumulation rate is far behind the town level, weak reflects the serious shortage of public investment in the vast rural and rural public the accumulation of capital, which should be the main reason of poverty in rural areas. Therefore, we should increase public investment in rural areas in the future the process of urbanization, promote the accumulation of public capital in the rural areas. The policy is also beneficial.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.21;F224

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