基于LMDI的广东省碳排放驱动因子研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 05:38

本文选题：碳排放　切入点：因素分解　出处：《广东省社会科学院》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济的快速增长以及化石能源的大量消耗，导致全球大气中温室气体浓度日渐升高，由此引发的全球气候异常成为直接威胁人类生存和发展的关键性环境问题。抑制碳排放成为世界各国共同和不可推卸的责任。中国作为最大的发展中国家，目前正处于工业化、城市化高速发展阶段，能源大量消耗不可避免，加之我国存在“煤多、油少、气贫”的资源禀赋特点，高耗能、高排放式经济发展方式因此备受关注。2009年我国政府向世界明确承诺“到2020年实现单位GDP二氧化碳排放量比2005年下降40%-45%”。节能减排、走低碳经济发展道路已成为我国经济发展的必然选择。广东作为我国经济和能源消耗大省，其碳排放状况对全国碳排放有着重要影响。2011年，国家发改委发布的《国家十二五温室气体减排方案》通知中，明确提出“十二五”期间广东单位GDP二氧化碳排放量要下降19.5%，单位GDP能耗下降18%，这是全国34个省市中要求最严格的碳减排任务。广东节能减排任重道远。本文以现有国内外相关文献为基础，利用LMDI因素分解法，对影响广东碳排放变动的驱动因子进行实证研究，以期找出影响广东碳排放变动的内在原因，为推进广东节能减排低碳提供参考。首先，本文对1997-2011年广东省能源、经济及碳排放现状进行分析。然后，运用LMDI因子分解方法重点对广东省碳排放总量以及广东省工业内部30个高耗能行业的碳排放进行因素分解研究，定量测算了经济发展、能源结构、能源强度以及部门结构因素对广东碳排放量变动的影响。研究显示，经济规模效应对碳排放变动贡献份额最大，起到了125.99%的拉动作用；而能源强度的下降和能源消费结构的优化则对碳排放增长起到一定的抑制作用，贡献份额分别为-24.57%和-1.42%。此外，，还发现工业内部重点耗能行业的快速发展是广东碳排放快速增长的主因。尽管近年来广东加大对资本技术密集型工业的技术扶持力度，但效率因素的抑制作用仍无法抵消高耗能工业急速扩张带来的反向拉动作用，导致了碳排放的快速增加。最后，本文基于实证研究结果，就广东如何进一步有效推进节能减排低碳，分别从产业结构、能源消费结构以及能源利用效率等多个角度提出相应的碳减排措施和建议。
[Abstract]:Rapid economic growth and massive consumption of fossil energy have led to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the global atmosphere. The global climate anomaly caused by this has become a key environmental problem that directly threatens the survival and development of human beings, and it is the common and unshirkable responsibility of all countries in the world to curb carbon emissions. As the largest developing country, China is now in the stage of industrialization and rapid development of urbanization. A large amount of energy consumption is inevitable. In addition, China has the characteristics of "more coal, less oil and poor gas", which is characterized by high energy consumption. In 2009, our government made a clear commitment to the world, "by 2020, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be 40 to 45 percent lower than in 2005." The development of low-carbon economy has become the inevitable choice of China's economic development. Guangdong, as a major economic and energy consumption province, its carbon emissions have an important impact on national carbon emissions in 2011, In the notice issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for greenhouse Gas reduction", It is clearly proposed that the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP in Guangdong should be reduced by 19.5% and the energy consumption per unit GDP should be reduced by 18% during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, which is the strictest task of carbon emission reduction in 34 provinces and cities in China. Guangdong has a long way to go to save energy and reduce emissions. Based on the existing literature at home and abroad, this paper makes an empirical study on the driving factors that affect the change of carbon emissions in Guangdong by using the LMDI factorization method, in order to find out the internal reasons that affect the changes of carbon emissions in Guangdong. First of all, this paper analyzes the energy, economy and carbon emission status of Guangdong Province from 1997 to 2011. The total carbon emissions of Guangdong Province and the carbon emissions of 30 energy-consuming industries in Guangdong Province are studied by using LMDI factorization method. The economic development and energy structure are measured quantitatively. The impact of energy intensity and sector structure on carbon emissions in Guangdong. The research shows that the economic scale effect contributes the most to the change of carbon emissions, playing a pulling role of 125.99%, while the decrease of energy intensity and the optimization of energy consumption structure play a certain role in restraining the growth of carbon emissions. The contribution shares were -24.57% and -1.42%, respectively. In addition, it was found that the rapid development of key energy-consuming industries within the industry was the main reason for the rapid growth of carbon emissions in Guangdong, although in recent years Guangdong has increased its technological support for capital-technology-intensive industries. But the inhibitive effect of efficiency factors can not counteract the reverse pulling effect brought by the rapid expansion of energy-consuming industry, which leads to the rapid increase of carbon emissions. Finally, based on the results of empirical research, this paper puts forward the corresponding carbon reduction measures and suggestions from the industrial structure, energy consumption structure and energy use efficiency from the industrial structure, energy consumption structure and energy use efficiency.
【学位授予单位】：广东省社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.5;F224

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