城市土地储备供应决策效率及其调控对策研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 06:23

  本文选题：DEA方法　切入点：Tobit模型　出处：《南京农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国城市土地储备制度的建立,我国逐步形成了由国家统一收购、统一储备、统一供应的土地市场,土地储备供应成为了我国主要的城市土地供应模式,大大促进我国土地资源的合理配置。然而目前由于我国城市土地储备制度还处于边运作、边探索的阶段,城市土地供应机制尚不完善,仍缺乏适当的理论框架对土地储备决策部门进行约束和指导,土地储备工作逐渐偏离其初衰,由此暴露诸多问题,影响城市房地产业健康发展。因此,探讨如何减少政府土地储备供应决策误差,提高土地储备供应制度的实施效果,避免“政府失灵”,对于我国城市的发展显得十分重要。本文运用DEA模型分析了2003年和2009年全国34个大中城市的土地储备供应决策效率及其在2003--2009年之间效率变化值,并运用Tobit模型对2009年土地储备供应决策效率的影响因素进行了探讨,在此基础上,提出调控对策,以进一步提高土地储备供应决策水平。本文第一部分介绍了本文的研究背景,明确了研究目的及意义,对国家内外关于土地储备、土地储备功能定位、土地储备决策研究、DEA及Tobit模型应用研究进行了文献回顾,提出本文的研究思路和技术路线,最后概括了本研究可能存在的创新和不足之处。本文第二部分则对本研究涉及的土地储备供应、目标、决策与决策效率等概念进行了明确界定,并阐述了相关理论基础。本文第三部分在分析制度与效率的关系基础上,概述了效率导向下的土地储备供应制度的形成与发展,以及探讨了土地储备供应制度现状所决定的效率状态。在充分认识土地储备供应制度与决策效率内在关系的基础上,提出进行效率研究的必要性。本文第四部分首先在通过比较效率评价常用方法的基础上,确定DEA方法的适用性。然后运用DEA模型对34个大中城市2003年和2009年土地储备供应决策效率进行评价,再借助Malmquist指数对34个大中城市在2003-2009年期间土地储备供应决策效率变化趋势进行分析。研究表明,土地储备供应决策综合效率水平受纯技术效率和规模效率共同影响；2003-2009年土地储备供应决策效率有所改善,主要得益于规模效率的提升；各地区土地投入存在不同程度的冗余。本文第五部分运用Tobit模型对影响土地储备供应决策效率的因素进行了分析探讨,具有显著性作用的影响因素包括财政分权体制、城镇化发展、技术进步、土地市场投机行为、房地产竣工面积、公民政治参与意识。研究结果表明,财政分权体制、技术进步、房地产竣工面积、公民政治参与意识显著正面影响土地储备供应决策效率；城镇化发展、土地市场投机行为与土地储备供应决策效率呈负相关。本文第六部分根据效率评价结果阐述了土地储备供应制度实施的效果,并结合影响因素分析结果,提出了调控对策,以提高土地储备供应决策水平。本文第七部分包括主要结论、政策改革建议、研究展望。
[Abstract]:With the establishment of China's city land reserve system, China has gradually formed a unified acquisition by the State Reserve, unified supply of land market, land reserve and supply become China's main mode of city land supply, greatly promote the rational allocation of land resources in China. However, because of China's land reserve system is still in the city the side edge operation, exploration stage, city land supply mechanism is not perfect, lack of appropriate theoretical framework for the guidance and restraint of the land reserve decision-making department, the land reserve work gradually deviated from the initial decline, many problems exposed by this, affect the healthy development of city real estate industry. Therefore, how to reduce the supply of government land reserve the decision-making error, improve the implementation effect of land reserve and supply system, to avoid the "government failure", is very important for the development of our city is. This paper uses DEA model Analysis of the land reserve and supply in 2003 and 2009 34 large and medium-sized city's decision-making efficiency and efficiency change in value between 2003--2009 years, and the use of the influence factors of the Tobit model of the 2009 land reserve and supply decision efficiency were discussed, on this basis, put forward the control countermeasure, to further improve the land reserve and supply decision-making level. In the first part of this paper introduces the research background, the research purpose and significance, on the inside and outside the country on land reserve, land reserve function, research on decision making of land reserve, DEA model and Tobit application research in the literature review, this paper puts forward the research ideas and technical route, and finally summarized this study possible innovation and deficiencies the second part of this paper. This study involves the land reserve and supply, goal, concept of decision-making and decision efficiency were clearly defined, and elaborate The relevant theoretical basis. The third part of the paper analyzes the relations of system and efficiency on the formation and development of the land reserve and supply system efficiency under the guidance of the efficiency of state and discusses the status quo of land reserve and supply system was determined. Based on the full understanding of the inherent relationship between land reserve and supply system and decision-making efficiency, put forward the necessity of efficiency research. In the fourth part, based on the comparison of common methods for efficiency evaluation, determine the applicability of DEA method. Then using the DEA model to evaluate the efficiency of 34 large and medium-sized city in 2003 and 2009 land reserve and supply decision, then using Malmquist index analysis of 34 large and medium-sized city land reserve and supply decision the efficiency change trend in a period of 2003-2009 years. The study shows that the comprehensive efficiency of land reserve and supply decision-making level of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency 鐜囧叡鍚屽奖鍝嶏紱2003-2009骞村湡鍦板偍澶囦緵搴斿喅绛栨晥鐜囨湁鎵，

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