关于房地产开发景气指数与利率的动态分析

发布时间：2018-03-31 05:39

本文选题：利率　切入点：房地产开发景气指数　出处：《东北大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国从2000年开始在全国大规模推广和改革住房规制,使得近几年国内房地产市场的发展速度很快。随着越来越严重的房地产泡沫的出现,对房地产市场的调控比以往更强烈,力度更大。利率是被多次用来调控房地产价格的一个重要工具。然而,很难证明利率和房地产价格之间的具体关系。因此,本文的研究有利于优化利率政策,完善调控机制,并进一步促进房地产市场的发展。经过搜集房地产市场的月度数据,本文通过ADF检验、协整检验、向量误差修正模型、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数方法、ARCH模型等方法对全国房地产开发景气指数和利率之间的关系进行了定量分析。结果表明,由于我国利率政策发挥效应存在一定的时间滞后性,所以在短时间内我国的利率和房地产开发景气指数之间存在正相关性,长期存在负相关性。最后,为了能更好的发挥利率对房地产价格的调控作用,进一步完善利率机制,提出以下几点建议：第一,积极推进利率市场化进程,建立一个有效且有秩序的金融市场,建立完善的金融监管体系。第二,应该加强对房地产市场供应的管理,保持房地产价格对利率变化的敏感性。第三,为了使利率调控房地产价格的功能达到更好,利率需要其他政策配合形成合力,共同发挥作用。第四,为了使利率政策能达到预期的效果,需要进一步规范房地产市场。
[Abstract]:China began to promote and reform housing regulation in the whole country in 2000, which made the domestic real estate market develop rapidly in recent years. With the emergence of more and more serious real estate bubble, the regulation and control of the real estate market is stronger than ever. Interest rate is an important tool used to control real estate price many times. However, it is difficult to prove the specific relationship between interest rate and real estate price. And further promote the development of the real estate market. After collecting the monthly data of the real estate market, this paper passes the ADF test, cointegration test, vector error correction model and Granger causality test. The relationship between real estate development boom index and interest rate is quantitatively analyzed by using impulse response function method and arch model. The results show that there is a certain time lag in the exertion effect of interest rate policy in China. So in a short period of time, there is a positive correlation between the interest rate and the real estate development boom index in our country, and there is a negative correlation in the long run. Finally, in order to play a better role in the regulation of interest rates on real estate prices, we further improve the interest rate mechanism. Put forward the following suggestions: first, actively promote the interest rate marketization process, establish an effective and orderly financial market, establish a sound financial supervision system. Second, we should strengthen the management of the real estate market supply. To maintain the sensitivity of real estate prices to changes in interest rates. Third, in order to achieve a better function of controlling real estate prices by interest rates, interest rates need to be coordinated by other policies to form a joint effort to play a joint role. Fourth, In order to achieve the expected effect of interest rate policy, we need to further standardize the real estate market.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.5

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