PPP模式下西安市城中村改造项目的风险评价和利益分配

发布时间：2018-04-02 20:27

本文选题：城中村　切入点：改造项目　出处：《长安大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：城中村是我国城乡二元体制下工业化进程及城市发展过程中产生的一种特有的现象。随着经济的快速增长,城中村改造已经成为我国政府在推行城市化进程中的重要难题,而且,对这一难题的解决迫在眉睫。然而,城中村改造项目具有投资大、建设周期长、难度大等一系列特征,对管理技术和资金要求较高。且政府部门对于教育、医疗等行业的投资力度不断加大,所以传统的由政府出资进行城中村改造,资金问题就难以保障,导致我国城市化建设的节奏缓慢。基于此,探究一种新型的改造模式就显得尤为重要。西方国家早已将PPP模式广泛应用于公共基础设施建设中,取得了很好的效果,有许多成功的案例,显示出较强的优势,为我国城中村改造项目提供了借鉴作用。PPP模式是将政府部门、私人开发商的优势结合起来,既减轻了政府的财政压力,提高了整个项目的建设速度,又使得私人开发商得到稳定的收益,本文基于国内外的相关研究成果的基础上,对西安市城中村的政策、建设状况及目前存在的问题进行了总结,分析了将PPP模式引入城中村改造项目中的必要性和可行性,为引入此模式提供了一定的理论依据。为了确保城中村改造的顺利进行,运用WBS-RBS风险识别法,识别出城中村改造过程中,项目可能存在的主要风险因素,分析了项目风险的多维属性特征,给出了城中村改造项目的四维属性风险因素,建立了PPP模式下城中村改造项目评价风险指标体系,通过构建多维函数,确定出各单个风险因素的风险度,进而给出整个项目的综合风险度,给出了总目标的权重值,根据所确定的权重值,为项目进行风险评价提供了依据。此外,本文对传统的层次分析法进行改进,不再需要进行一致性检验。根据得出的风险结果,利用风险分担效用理论,构建出基于PPP模式下城中村改造项目基于风险分担的效益分配模型,求出最终的纳什均衡解,即为最佳分配方案。最后,还进行实证分析,为PPP模式下城中村改造项目的风险评价和利益分配提供了参考。
[Abstract]:The village in city is a special phenomenon in the process of industrialization and urban development under the dual system of urban and rural in China.With the rapid economic growth, the transformation of villages in cities has become an important problem in the process of urbanization, and it is urgent to solve this problem.However, a series of characteristics such as large investment, long construction period and great difficulty are the characteristics of the village reconstruction project in the city, which requires high management technology and capital.And the government investment in education, medical treatment and other industries is increasing, so the traditional transformation of villages in the city funded by the government is difficult to guarantee, leading to the slow pace of urbanization construction in China.Based on this, it is particularly important to explore a new mode of transformation.The PPP model has been widely used in the construction of public infrastructure in western countries for a long time, and has achieved good results. There have been many successful cases, showing strong advantages.The model of PPP is to combine the advantages of government departments and private developers, which not only lightens the financial pressure of the government, but also improves the construction speed of the whole project.This paper summarizes the policy, construction situation and existing problems of the village in Xi'an city based on the domestic and foreign research results.This paper analyzes the necessity and feasibility of introducing the PPP model into the urban village reconstruction project, which provides a theoretical basis for the introduction of the model.In order to ensure the smooth progress of urban village reconstruction, the main risk factors that may exist in the process of urban village reconstruction are identified by using WBS-RBS risk identification method, and the multi-dimensional attribute characteristics of project risk are analyzed.In this paper, the four dimensional attribute risk factors of urban village reconstruction project are given, the evaluation risk index system of urban village reconstruction project under PPP mode is established, and the risk degree of each individual risk factor is determined by constructing multidimensional function.Furthermore, the comprehensive risk degree of the whole project is given, and the weight value of the total objective is given. According to the determined weight value, it provides the basis for the risk evaluation of the project.In addition, this paper improves the traditional analytic hierarchy process, no longer need to check consistency.According to the result of risk, using the theory of risk sharing utility, the benefit allocation model based on risk sharing of village reconstruction project in city based on PPP mode is constructed, and the final Nash equilibrium solution, that is, the best allocation scheme, is obtained.Finally, an empirical analysis is carried out, which provides a reference for the risk evaluation and benefit distribution of the village reconstruction project in the city under PPP mode.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F283;F299.27

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