纳龙高速公路BOT项目投资风险分析与评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 19:28

本文选题：纳龙高速 + BOT模式　；参考：《南京理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：内蒙古纳龙高速公路是深入推进国家西部大开发战略的需要,是促进内蒙古经济社会又好又快发展的需要,其实施具有必要性。纳龙高速公路采取BOT融资方式,它能够解决内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市准格尔旗交通局资金来源问题,但是采取BOT建设模式对于投资者来说将会产生一定的风险,为了弄清影响那龙高速公路建设的风险因素,确定指标对项目影响大的因素,要重点研究重点把握,对于那些影响作用较小的因素可以忽略不记。本文首先从项目建设角度出发,对BOT项目的研究背景进行概述,并总结了国内外一些学者对BOT项目建设模式及风险,通过对比和分析,提出本文研究的目的和意义,及研究内容,最后总结出全文的研究路线。接下来较深入的了解高速公路BOT建设融资模式,并建立纳龙高速公路BOT项目投资风险评价指标体系,概括投资的风险及特征,最终确定投资风险因素集,通过向相关行业专业人士发放问卷,并对问卷的结果进行分析,最终确定对BOT项目投资影响较大的因素。建立纳龙高速公路BOT项目投资风险评价模型,通过确定指标权重,应用熵值法,对影响较大因素进一步分析,最终确定影响纳龙高速公路BOT项目投资风险因素的先后顺序。然后对纳龙高速公路BOT项目4种方案进行对比分析,主要进行经济费用效益分析、经济敏感性分析、财务分析等,通过对各项指标的对比分析来判断BOT项目的国民经济效益及抗风险能力,即经济上是否可行,是否能达到贷款偿还能力。最后对纳龙高速公路BOT项目投资风险进行综合评价,并提出了应对各种风险的防范措施。
[Abstract]:Nei Mongol Nalong Expressway is the need of promoting the strategy of western development and the need of promoting the sound and rapid development of Inner Mongolia's economy and society, and its implementation is necessary.The Nalong Expressway adopts BOT financing, which can solve the problem of the source of funds of Zhungeer Banner Transportation Bureau in Erdos, Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, but adopting the BOT construction mode will have certain risks for investors.In order to find out the risk factors that affect the construction of Naolong Expressway and determine the factors that have a great impact on the project, we should focus on the study and grasp the key points, which can be ignored for those factors which have little effect on the construction of Naolong Expressway.This paper firstly summarizes the research background of BOT project from the point of view of project construction, and summarizes some scholars at home and abroad about the construction mode and risk of BOT project. Through comparison and analysis, the purpose and significance of this study are put forward.And the research content, finally summarizes the full text research route.Next, we deeply understand the financing mode of highway BOT construction, and establish the investment risk evaluation index system of Nalong Expressway BOT project, summarize the risk and characteristics of investment, and finally determine the set of investment risk factors.By issuing questionnaires to professionals in related industries and analyzing the results of the questionnaires, the factors that have a great impact on the investment of BOT projects are finally determined.The investment risk evaluation model of BOT project in Nalong Expressway is established. By determining the index weight and applying entropy value method, the influential factors are further analyzed, and the order of risk factors affecting the investment of BOT project in Nalong Expressway is finally determined.Then the four schemes of the BOT project of Nalong Expressway are compared and analyzed, including economic cost benefit analysis, economic sensitivity analysis, financial analysis and so on.Through the comparative analysis of each index to judge the national economic benefit and the ability of resisting risk of BOT project, that is, whether it is economically feasible or not, whether it can reach the repayment ability of loan.Finally, the investment risk of the BOT project of Nalong Expressway is comprehensively evaluated, and the preventive measures to deal with all kinds of risks are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：南京理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F283

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