北京市产业结构对就业的影响分析

发布时间：2018-04-26 16:49

本文选题：产业结构 + 就业结构　；参考：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：产业结构调整是经济发展的必然,产业结构的变动会导致就业结构的变动及就业增长的变化,从某种意义上说,产业结构决定与之相适应的就业结构,但是就业结构的变动有时会脱离产业结构的变动,造成就业转换的滞后和就业增长的阻碍。研究二者之间的变动关系,找出与产业结构变动相适应的就业结构,保证就业稳定增长,是一个具有现实意义的问题。北京市现有2000多万人口,劳动力资源应该说极其丰富,总体来说呈现出供过于求状态,就业压力较大。随着经济的发展,产业结构与就业结构会随之进行调整,会对就业产生极大影响。针对这一现实问题,本文会选取1995年到2011年相关经济变量的年度数据,采用定量分析为主,定性分析相结合的方法,对北京市产业结构与就业结构二十多年来的变化以及二者之间的关系、存在的问题进行研究,并提出解决问题的思路。本论文借助产业结构理论以及就业结构理论,综述北京市产业发展以及居民就业的历史、现状和未来。在此基础上,对北京市现有的产业及就业问题做出识别和总结,分析其成因和机理。在理论分析产业结构与就业结构之间互动关系之后,通过统计方法以及就业弹性方法用数据证明了它们之间的互动关系。另外本文以2010年北京市投入产出表数据为基础,运用投入产出分析的基本理论与方法建立模型,对北京市各产业就业吸纳能力进行评估和预测。通过相关系数和就业弹性的分析,第一产业和第二产业存在剩余劳动力,第三产业对就业的拉动作用最大。但是,第一产业的就业弹性为负值,并不意味着其增长不能促进就业,而是说明随着农业劳动生产率提高导致了大量的劳动力转移到第三产业。对第二产业来说,在北京市产业结构不断演进的过程中,第二产业的资金、知识以及技术的密集程度不断增高,这使得第二产业的企业可以获得更高的劳动生产率,在减少雇用劳动力的同时增加企业效益。基于北京市2010年投入产出表以及北京市统计年鉴中的数据,本文建立了关于最终使用Y与各产业就业人数L之间关系的模型,并利用模型预测2015年北京市各产业需要的就业人数,并与最新统计年鉴中各产业实际就业人数相对比,为北京市未来几年的产业和就业发展提供意见。
[Abstract]:The adjustment of industrial structure is the necessity of economic development. The change of industrial structure will lead to the change of employment structure and the change of employment growth. In a sense, the industrial structure determines the employment structure corresponding to it. However, the change of employment structure sometimes deviates from the change of industrial structure, which leads to the lag of employment transformation and the hindrance of employment growth. It is of practical significance to study the changing relationship between the two, to find out the employment structure suitable to the change of industrial structure and to ensure the steady growth of employment. There are more than 20 million people in Beijing, labor resources should be said to be extremely rich, overall, there is a state of oversupply, employment pressure. With the economic development, the industrial structure and employment structure will be adjusted, which will have a great impact on employment. In view of this realistic problem, this paper will select the annual data of relevant economic variables from 1995 to 2011, and adopt the method of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. This paper studies the changes of industrial structure and employment structure in Beijing over the past twenty years, the relationship between them, and the existing problems, and puts forward some ideas to solve the problems. With the help of industrial structure theory and employment structure theory, this paper summarizes the history, present situation and future of Beijing's industrial development and residents' employment. On this basis, the existing industry and employment problems in Beijing are identified and summarized, and the causes and mechanism are analyzed. After the theoretical analysis of the interaction between industrial structure and employment structure, the interaction between them is proved by statistical method and employment elasticity method. In addition, based on the data of Beijing input-output table in 2010, using the basic theory and method of input-output analysis, this paper establishes a model to evaluate and predict the employment absorption ability of various industries in Beijing. Through the analysis of correlation coefficient and employment elasticity, there is surplus labor force in the primary industry and the second industry, and the third industry plays the most important role in promoting employment. However, the employment elasticity of the primary industry is negative, which does not mean that its growth can not promote employment, but shows that with the increase of agricultural labor productivity, a large number of labor force is transferred to the tertiary industry. For the secondary industry, in the course of the continuous evolution of the industrial structure of Beijing, the capital, knowledge and technology density of the secondary industry is increasing, which enables the enterprises in the secondary industry to obtain higher labor productivity. Reduce the employment of labor at the same time increase the efficiency of the enterprise. Based on the input-output table of Beijing in 2010 and the data in the Beijing Statistical Yearbook, this paper establishes a model about the relationship between the final use of Y and the number of people employed in various industries. The model is used to forecast the number of industries in Beijing in 2015, and compared with the actual number of industries in the latest statistical yearbook, which provides advice for the industry and employment development of Beijing in the next few years.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F249.27

【引证文献】